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NFL Thanksgiving Night Free Total Pick

New York Giants at Washington Redskins *Total (45)

The Redskins are TD favorites to continue the Giants sleepy offense on turkey day, but we’re more concerned with how the 11/23 NFL free pick total play will go down. Oddsmakers have set the total at 45, and it looks like we’ll have a split in the first two totals of the day, one over and one under. In this rubber match, will the Redskins offense push the ‘over’ or will the inept Giants defense result in an under bet?

Is ‘Under’ the Bet to Make?

11/23 NFL free pick total
All the preseason prognosticators were telling you Evan Engram was going to lead the Giants in TD with 5…right?

The Giants offense is something this year – maybe the word is ‘offensive.’ In the last four games New York has put up for points 7, 17, 21, and 12 which is why they are ranked 30th in the NFL in points scored per game. Even in a win, the Giants managed just 12 points last week as their ‘vaunted’ passing attack put up just 205 yards. The Giants are 26th in rushing, 24th in total yards, and have gone ‘under’ the total in three of the last five games.

So what is Washington’s contribution to a possible ‘under’ play? Honestly not much as six of the last seven Redskins games have gone ‘over.’ They are in a conference game however, and the last meeting with the Giants was just a 19-10 New York win on New Year’s Day. Three of the last five matchups with New York have gone ‘under’ tonight’s 11/23 NFL free pick total of 45.

Just Put Money On the ‘Over’ and Go Back for Fourths of Turkey?

11/23 NFL free pick total
Vernon Davis could be a huge ‘X’ Factor for Over bettors.

The ‘over’ may be the safe play with Washington taking the field. As stated, the Redskins have played ‘over’ in six of the last seven mostly because they score – and also give up a boat load of points. Washington has allowed 34+ points in four of the last five games, and has scored 30+ in two straight. Washington has a top 10 total offense that is 7th in the pass and 12th in points scored. Not only that, the Redskins ‘O’ is up against a New York defense that is 31st in total yards allowed, 30th versus the rush and 29th against the pass.

It’s possible New York even has a good offensive night against a Washington defense that is 24th in total yards allowed, 25th vs the pass, and 31st in opposition points scored. If the New York offense can get something – anything – going the 11/23 NFL free pick total looks like an ‘over’ play.

11/23 NFL Free Pick Total

The Washington offense is good, the Redskins defense is bad, and the Giants defense also stinks. That’s three solid variables that can outweigh the fact that New York doesn’t put up much on offense. The Giants could be eager to dispel the notion that their offense is so bad in front of a holiday night primetime audience, and any coach that is on the hot seat such as New York’s Ben McAdoo is won’t be afraid to pull every punch to get the win – or at least a gravy boat full of points.

Pick: New York Giants / Washington Redskins Over *45

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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