When round one of your four Thanksgiving eating cycles is just winding down, you’ll be treated to what could potentially be a very entertaining matchup between the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 6-4 Detroit Lions. For the game itself, Detroit has moved from a PK to a +2.5 favorite as 57% of the public is liking what they see from Minnesota. However, for the 11/23 NFL free total pick we see the classic matchup of offense vs. defense – so where will the 45.5 number lie?
The “Case” for an Offensive Show – and the Over
On a short week there’s always the potential for defensive lapses which lead to huge offensive days and Thanksgiving makes for an especially awkward week of game prep. Most of us remember memorable Thanksgiving day performances such as Peyton Manning’s 6 TD game, or rookie Randy Moss’ three TD of over 50 yards or even the Butt Fumble by Mark Sanchez a couple years ago. It would definitely be Detroit that has the edge for an offensive performance that is etched in pro football history for the 11/23 NFL free total pick. The Lions have the #6 passing attack in the NFL and have put up 27+ points in four of their past five games.
Of course for the 11/23 NFL free total pick to go ‘over’ it means the Vikings have to score too. Minnesota has proven that although their defense is great, the offense behind backup signal caller Case Keenum is no slouch either. The Vikings have scored 23+ points of their own in five straight contests. Believe it or not Minnesota sports the #5 offense in the game and ranks 11th in the pass and 8th in rushing offense. The Vikings should be able to continue that offensive run against a Detroit ‘D’ that is 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed and 19th in points per game given up.
— Detroit Lions Roar (@DetroiLionsRoar) November 22, 2017
With the Vikings Defense – Is ‘Under’ the Automatic Play?
While the Minnesota offense is 5th in the league which could lead to an ‘over’ play, their defense also ranks 5th which could make the ‘under’ a better lean. The Vikings are #2 against the rush, #11 vs the pass, and give up the 4th fewest points in the league at 17. 2 per game. Last week Minnesota held the Rams’ 4th ranked offense to just 254 total yards.Last week’s game marked the 7th time in 8 games that Vikings opponents scored less than 17 points.
Of course the Detroit defense would need to contribute to an ‘under’ for the 11/23 NFL free total pick as well. Detroit has allowed their opponents to 24 points or less in their last four games, which might not seem like a lot – unless the Minnesota defense holds Detroit to 13 points or fewer. The Lions do give up 114 rush yards per game which could keep the clock churning for the Minnesota offense – especially since coach Mike Zimmer still doesn’t trust his signal caller that is 7-2 on the year.
This should be the @lions defensive plan vs the @vikings offense. My #3 key is to keep Case Keenum @Vikings in the pocket. Why? Because Next Gen Stats has him the highest rated QB outside of the pocket! @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/azCVYJi0e0
— Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) November 23, 2017
11/23 NFL Free Total Pick – Betting
One thing to note about the Vikings 7 points allowed to the Rams, 16 points given up to the Ravens, and 10 points surrendered to Green Bay – is that those performances have all been at home. The new U.S Bank Stadium is a tough place to play in, but this vaunted Vikings defense gave up 30 two weeks ago at Washington and even allowed Cleveland’s #32 offense in points scored to put up 16. The Lions allowed that same Browns offense to score 24 against them two weeks ago and then last game gave up 24 more points to Chicago’s 5th worst scoring offense. This game has all the makings of an offensive show that will wake anybody up from their first Tryptophan coma of the day.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings / Detroit Lions *Over 45.5