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NFL Monday Night Football Over Under Free Pick

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs

There’s a sneaky good Monday Night Football over under free pick in the works tonight as the 2-1 Washington Redskins travel to Kansas City to take on the undefeated Chiefs. The side is listed as Kansas City -7 and it’s a line that’s indicative of just how impressive the Chiefs have been in their 3-0 start to the year. The number is a side that is hard to pin down which is why tonight we’re focusing on the total of “48.”

We have a good sample size of MNF games finally as we head into the finale of week four and so far not one Monday night game has gone over 48 total points (although the Saints/Vikings week one did tie that). Of course what night of the week it is doesn’t alone dictate how many points are going to be scored in a game so let’s get a further breakdown of that seemingly high Monday night over/under.

Can the Redskins Score to Push the “Over?”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Redskins Gameday: Can Washington topple the NFL’s last unbeaten team in the Kansas City Chiefs? <a href=""></a></p>— Post Sports (@PostSports) <a href="">October 2, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script>

The first thing you think of when pondering the Washington Redskins is their high-powered passing attack behind QB Kirk Cousins. “You like that” Washington is averaging 237.7 YPG in the air which is in the top half of the NFL. What’s really powering their success however is actually the running game which is tallying 136.3 yards per game, 7th best in the NFL. It’s a well-rounded attack too as Chris Thompson, Samaje Perine, and Rob Kelley are all tallying over 35 YPG. Thompson is averaging 8.5 yards per carry and could see an expanded workload tonight.


Washington getting their ground game going definitely favors the ‘under’ in the Monday Night Football over under free pick and it might be possible against the 20th ranked Chiefs defense giving up 111.7 yards on the ground per game. It may actually be Cousins who gets going however as the Chiefs are allowing 257.3 YPG in the air including 333 2 weeks ago to Carson Wentz.

Will KC Rely on Run or Pass In The Monday Night Football Over Under Free Pick

Monday Night Football over under free pick
It could be a late one as these two teams pile on the points

What’s so hard to pinpoint about tonight’s total of ’48’ is mainly the versatility of the Kansas City offense. If the Chiefs choose to rely on Kareem Hunt and his NFL leading 401 YPG it makes the ‘under’ a great play. That being said, QB Alex Smith is leading a passing attack ringing up 235.3 a game and can dial up a long one at any time to Tyreek Hill and get yardage in chunks to TE Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs have the #2 total offense in the NFL but they’ll be tested against Washington’s #4 defensive unit. The Redskins give up only 62.3 YPG on the ground which is second best in the NFL. Then again, the only real considerable running back they’ve faced is Todd Gurley, who gained 88 yards on 16 carries in week two. Could this be the first time the Chiefs’ Alex Smith is really bottled up against the Washington defense that also only allows 213.7 through the air. The Monday Night Football over under free pick is turning out to be a doozy.

Monday Night Football Over Under free Pick Play

Of the six games these teams have combined to play, only one has gone ‘over’ tonight’s number of 48. The total actually opened at 49 and has been bet down to where we stand now. Bettors are split on the sides and they’re equally nearly right down the middle on the total.

Tonight we have two good defenses and two solid running games. We also have two upper tier QBs and teams that have big play potential with stars like Washington’s Chris Thompson and Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill. This total seems like it should be down near 44-45, which makes the higher number actually desirable for the over. The veteran QBs will move the ball, and the strong running games will both tire the opposing defenses as well as open up opportunities for long gains in the air for the Monday Night Football over under free pick.

Pick: Washington / Kansas City *Over* 48

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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