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NFL Pick: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Pats and Bills Meet for the First Time This Season

The AFC East-leading New England Patriots (9-2 Overall, 5-0 Away) are at the team that led the East early in the season the Buffalo Bills (6-5 Overall, 4-1 Home). The Bills are in second in the division and are coming off a big 16-10 win against the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov 26. The Patriots have won seven straight games. This is the first meeting of the season between these two clubs with the second being scheduled for Dec 24. Our New England plays Buffalo 2017 NFL pick has the Pats favored by 7.0 and the over/under at 49.5. By the way, if you’re taking New England in this game, do so quickly as some books have them as high as -10.5. However, you can still get them at -7.0.

New England Overall

The Patriot offense is cranking out points. In their last three games, they’ve scored a minimum of 33 points in each game, and they are averaging 29.5 PPG for the season. Much of the damage is done through the passing, which is led by QB Tom Brady (68.4 COMP%, 26 TDs, 3 INTs). Eight different players have caught touchdown passes for the Pats, with Brady’s primary receivers being Brandin Cooks (51 REC, 17.0 AVG, 5 TDs), Rob Gronkowski (46 REC, 15.3 AVG, 7 TDs), and Danny Amendola (44 REC, 10.3 AVG, 2 TDs). The ground attack is thin, as Mike Gillislee, who has four TD runs and is averaging 3.6 YPA, is out for today’s game. However, Dion. Lewis, who’s averaging 5.1 YPA and has rushed for five scores, will play.

The Pat D will give up yardage, but they do manage to keep the point totals reasonable, as they are allowing on average 20.0 PPG. However, in the last five games, the defense has given up on average just 12.2 PPG. The secondary’s numbers are pretty good for the Pats, as they’ve snatched 10 picks and defended 49 passes. The defense has forced seven fumbles and recovered six. The Patriot totals on sack, which stand at 24, and TFL, which are at just 19, are unimpressive.

Patriots Summary

  • Brady to various players will be primary offensive weapon
  • Defense has been playing well as of late
  • Need to establish ground game to some degree

Buffalo Overall

The Bills come to this game having lost three of their last five. They’re scoring an average of 20.4 PPG. QB Tyrod Taylor (64.0 COMP%, 12 TDs, 3 INTs) has been off and on this season. He’s been especially prone to the sack, having been brought down a total of 31 times. Taylor is a decent running. He’s averaging 4.6 YPA and has three rushing scores. Two big concerns on offense are dual-threat LeSean McCoy (192 ATT, 758 YDs, 3.9 AVG, 4 TDs) and TE Charles Clay (29 REC, 12.3 AVG, 2 TDs). McCoy, who along with his rushing stats has 46 pass catches for 295 yards, is questionable, while it’s highly unlikely Clay will be able to play. WR Andre Holmes with three TD catches is a scoring threat.

On defense, the Bills are having a tough time containing teams, as they’re allowing opponents on average 23.6 PPG. In their last five games, they’ve given up an average of 31.8 PPG. That’s the stuff from which blowouts are manufactured. The Buffalo defense is lacking when it comes to sack potential. They have posted just 17 QB bring-downs. However, they have notched a dozen interceptions, 57 passes defended, and 45 TFL. They’ve also forced 17 fumbles recovering seven. Safety Micah Hyde has been a standout with five picks and nine PD.

Bills Summary

  • Buffalo offers solid secondary
  • Injuries could hurt offense
  • Taylor has to play perfect game

Three Major Takeaways

In our New England plays Buffalo 2017 NFL pick, we offer these three primary observations-

  1. Brady should have a lot of time to throw
  2. Bills secondary has the skill to step up
  3. Edge on both sides of the ball goes the Pats

Spread and Totals Free Pick

The Patriots have been playing well, scoring a lot, while, overall, the Bills have been struggling. We think the Pats will score quite a few points today, but with so many injuries on offense, we wonder if the Bills will put many points on the board. We are going with the under. Our New England plays Buffalo 2017 NFL pick for the spread is the Pats at -7.0.

Summary Pats at Bills Picks: Under 49.5 and New England at -7.0


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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