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NCAAF Week 8 #20 Texas at #11 Oklahoma State Betting Preview

OSU Defense In Shambles

When the Longhorns and OSU meet up in recent years it’s been a fairly close game. Five straight meetings have been decided by one score but could that change in the Texas at Oklahoma State betting matchup as part of the week 8 slate?

Texas comes into Stillwater as a -5.5 favorite even after losing last year’s meeting 32-24 as +3.5 favorites in Austin. The Longhorns had to squeak out a 24-21 win over Iowa State last week as -16 point favorites but that’s not a bad ISU defense. Oklahoma State suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling 43-40 in 2OT at TCU although they were +5 point underdogs. 64% of the public is taking OSU as a home underdog here.

Texas Offense Could Have a Big Day

Coming into the Texas at Oklahoma State game on Saturday it looks like the Longhorns are searching for consistency on offense. After all they dominated Oklahoma 49-0 in the Red River Showdown as -7.5 favorites in week six but had their struggles in a 24-21 victory at home over Iowa State last weekend when giving -16 points.

The truth is, Texas’ performance last week against the Cyclones may have been more impressive than their nearly 50-burger against the Sooners. Bijan Robinson ran for 135 yards against Iowa State’s defense that ranks 21st in the country and QB Quinn Ewers was 17/26 with 3 TDs against a Cyclones unit that is 18th in the country vs. the pass.

When you combine the fact that last week’s contest with Iowa State was a sandwich game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and the fact that the Cyclones had won three straight in the series, Texas failing to cover the number last Saturday wasn’t a surprise. That being said, giving up 329 yards to the Cyclones isn’t ideal heading into a matchup with an explosive Oklahoma State offense.

Oklahoma State Ready For a Shootout?

If Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders is healthy, this game could easily end up 48-45 (O/U 58.5). The Cowboys rank 23rd in the country in passing at just under 300 yards a game and we saw what Iowa State did against the Texas secondary last week.

Sanders’ health is a huge IF though, as he continues to battle through a shoulder injury. He didn’t practice all week leading up to the TCU game and looked healthy with 2 TD runs and a TD pass in the first half. After taking some hits though, Sanders struggled in the 2nd half and ended up just 16-36 passing. Sanders will likely try to give it a go to start the game, but how healthy is he?

The reason Oklahoma State needs their offense to be as close to healthy as possible is because their defense is probably going to give up some points here. One of – if not the – best defenses in the country a year ago has turned into one of the worst in 2022 especially against the pass where they allow 301.0 ypg.

Free Texas at Oklahoma State Betting Pick

Even on the road in Stillwater Texas has the potential to turn this game ugly. That’s how bad the OSU defense (that couldn’t hold a 14-point 4th quarter lead last week) is and combined with Sanders’ health being in question at QB it’s hard to see how the Cowboys stay in this one.

Free Pick: Texas -5.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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