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NCAAF Week 5 Iowa State at Kansas Betting Preview

Undefeated Jayhawks Still Home Underdogs

The Jayhawks still aren’t getting respect despite their 4-0 record, with oddsmakers setting KU as +3.5 home underdogs in the Iowa State at Kansas betting matchup. That’s what happens when you’ve gone 2-19 the last two seasons, but KU coach Lance Leipold likes playing with the chip on his shoulder.

Saturday’s point spread isn’t all about disrespect to the Jayhawks, the 3-1 Cyclones are a pretty well-coached team in their own rights. ISU suffered their first loss of the season last week against #17 Baylor, although Iowa State was a -2.5 home favorite in that tilt. ISU absolutely mopped the floor with Kansas last season 59-7, but that game was in Ames and the results was expected as -34.5 favorites. A slight 56% of the betting public likes Iowa State here.

Iowa State Tries to Bounce Back

The Cyclones started the season well going 3-0 considering they were losing 4-year starter Brock Purdy, back-to-back 1,400 yard rusher Breece Hall, and 6’6 TE Charlie Kolar all to the NFL. The strong start for the 2022 Iowa State squad included a 10-7 win over rival Iowa as +3.5 road underdogs.

Now the goal for Matt Campbell’s squad is to bounce back from their first loss of the season, falling by a TD at home to Baylor last week. The Bears were up 31-14 in the 4th, so the game wasn’t as close as it seems after the Cyclones added 10 points late.

Hunter Dekkers threw for 284 yards and 2 TDs last week but he also had 2 INTs to put him at 10 TDs to 5 INTs on the season. The Kansas defense can be gotten to (27.3 ppg allowed) but Iowa State also needs to be better than the 27 carries for 66 yards rushing they had last week.

Kansas Keeps Churning

Set them up and the Jayhawks hope to keep knocking them down in the Iowa State at Kansas betting matchup in week 5. KU’s start is no fluke, aside from a 46-point win over Tennessee Tech in the opener the Jayhawks have picked up wins on the road at West Virginia and Houston as +14 and +9.5 underdogs respectively and last weekend avoided the letdown in a 35-27 home win over Duke that covered the -7 point spread.

The most important thing about the strong Kansas start is that players are buying in, which wasn’t going to be easy after a 2-10 (1-8 in conference) record last season. The man guiding the resurgence is QB Jalon Daniels who has 11 TDs to just 1 INT on the year and has added another 320 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. Daniels averages 8.4 ypc when he tucks and runs, 7th best among all players in the nation.

Daniels’ effectiveness keeps opposing defenses honest, and it’s also allowed KU running backs Devin Neal (258 yards, 4TDs) and Daniel Hishaw, Jr. (231 yards, 4 TDS) to have success as well.

Free Week 5 Iowa State at Kansas Betting Pick

Nobody is worried about the Kansas offense here, they are incredibly efficient and should have success even against Iowa State’s #7 ranked rush defense. The real problem gets to be the Jayhawks defense, who gave up 59 points to the Cyclones in last year’s meeting and is giving up an even 400.0 ypg.

This has the makings of being a very entertaining game, and a 34-31 type finish isn’t out of the question.

Free Pick: Over 58.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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