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NCAAF Week 3 MWC Free Pick

Line Movement Everywhere As #17 Boise State Goes on the Road at #19 Oklahoma State

One of the better college football games on the docket this afternoon before conference play really heats up next week is #17 Boise State taking on #19 Oklahoma State. Both teams enter the game 2-0 and oddsmakers are having a tough time feeling out the NCAAF Week 3 MWC free pick. The Cowboys opened as -3 favorites but the game has since been bet so that the Broncos are actually listed at -1.5. Neither team has really faced legit competition through the first two weeks of the season so is home field enough to sway the pick to OK. State?

Boise State Prepping For a Shootout In This One?

NCAAF week 3 MWC free pick
Mattison found the end zone last week and hopes to do so again today.

The Broncos have stormed out to a 2-0 start and 2-0 ATS but that was largely expected. In week 1 they smoked Troy on the road 56-20 in one of the easiest bets of the day at BSU just -9. Oddsmakers jacked up the line to BSU -34 but Boise still won and covered with a 62-7 win at home vs. UCONN. QB Brett Rypien is the 7th highest rated passer in the country at 214.5. He’s also thrown for the 14th most yards in the nation (679) with 7TD and 0 INT which is more impressive considering the passing opportunities have been limited in two blowout wins. The potent passing attack opens up the ground game for Alexander Mattison (6.8 ypc) which is why today’s total is listed at a whopping 66.5.

There’s another pretty solid offense across the field in the┬áNCAAF Week 3 MWC free pick which is why the onus is going to be on the Boise defense to get the solid road win. 20 points was a lot to give up to Troy in the opener, but 13 of those came in the second half when Boise had already built a 35-7 lead. That D buckled down last week, limiting UCONN to just 193 total yards but Oklahoma State is a little different team than the Huskies. Either way BSU has a top 25 defense after two weeks which is where they want to be with how great their offense is.

Cowboys Facing First Test of the Season

NCAAF week 3 MWC free pick
OSU coach Mike Gundy hopes he’s found gold in “Yukon” Cornelius.

For the most part we don’t know just how good this Oklahoma State offense is. Yes, they’re ranked #1 in the country with 674 ypg but they’ve also been favored by 30 or more in both of their wins this year. No matter the competition QB Taylor Cornelius has taken advantage, throwing for 728 yards so far which is 9th most in the nation. He’s also thrown 6TD but the 3INT isn’t ideal considering the Cowboys have played Missouri State and South Alabama the first two weeks of the year. Tylan Wallace caught 10 passes in the opener and Justice Hill ran for 122 yards on just 10 carries last week so the Cowboys do have a versatile attack.

Once again you have to look at the competition they’ve played, but coming into the┬áNCAAF Week 3 MWC free pick, Oklahoma State has a top 10 defensive unit. The OSU rush defense is giving up just 2.5 ypa and their pass defense is in the top 20 at just 143 ypg. Then again, Boise State is no South Alabama.

NCAAF Week 3 MWC Free Pick Betting

It’s no easy task going into Stillwater and getting the win but Boise QB Brett Rypien is a seasoned 4-year starter. OK State opened as favorites but have since been pounded to home ‘dogs which isn’t ideal if you’re a Broncos bettor. Everybody is going to be looking at Taylor Cornelius’ 3 INT as a good omen for Boise State but you can’t overlook his 700+ passing yards just the same. With two teams that haven’t played anybody yet this contest is hard to gauge. The line is also a little iffy with OSU opening as favorites therefore you stick with the oddsmakers first judgment.

MWC Free Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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