It doesn’t seem likely that anybody is going to catch Georgia in the SEC West but the winner of the Tennessee at Missouri betting matchup at least stays in the hunt. The #13 Volunteers (7-2) have suffered both of their losses on the road this season, while the #14 Tigers (7-2) have gone 4-1 in Columbia on the year.
Mizzu is a +2.5 point home underdog on Saturday afternoon, a number that honestly looks on the low side with the potency of the Vols offense. Surprisingly just 56% of the betting public is on Tennessee giving less than a field goal here.
Why Tennessee Has Value at -2.5
The Volunteers didn’t officially have a bye last week, but their 59-3 victory over Connecticut wasn’t exactly taxing. Tennessee was up 35-3 at the half, so they had the opportunity to rest a lot of key players which should have them very fresh for this week 11 key road matchup.
Tennessee covered the -34 point spread against UConn, throwing for 375 yards and running for 275. The quality of competition improves on Saturday on the road at Missouri, but the Vols still bring in the top rush offense in the SEC (227.7) as well as the #14 rush defense in the country (97.3 ypg).
It’s hard to not like Joe Milton leading Tennessee to cover the -2.5 in this spot considering he’s completed 65.5% of his passes this season throwing 15 TDs to just 4 INTs. The Volunteers also have three rushers with over 400 yards on the season with each averaging over 5 ypc – a great way to attack Missouri’s strength which is their run defense.
Why Missouri Has Value at +2.5
The early lean for most people here is on Tennessee mostly because Missouri might be one of the most underrated teams in the country. In fact the Tigers opened as -1 point favorites only to be bet to +2.5 which shows the oddsmakers and the bettors have two different views of Mizzu.
The Tigers might be a bit less known to those outside of SEC country, but this is a very solid team. Missouri’s two losses this season have come against LSU (49-39) in a game in which Louisiana State scored 14 points in the final 3 minutes and last week’s 30-21 hard fought battle at Georgia.
Milton is solid for Tennessee, but Missouri’s Brady Cook can easily outplay him on Saturday afternoon. Cook is completing 67.4% of his passes on the year with 16 TDs to 4 INTs which are almost identical to the Volunteers QB. Mizzu’s Cody Schrader is also a beast on the ground with 100+ rush yards in four of his last six.
Free Week 11 Tennessee at Missouri Betting Pick
The public betting numbers don’t necessarily represent it, but this looks like a trap line on Tennessee. The Volunteers have won four straight in the head to head series including 66-24 and 62-24 the last two seasons yet are just -2.5 favorites on Saturday afternoon. Line up the contrarian play here.
Free Pick: Missouri +2.5