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NCAAF Week 10 Florida State at Miami Betting Preview

'Canes the Home Dogs By More Than a TD

The Hurricanes are one of the worst ATS teams in college football season, going 1-7 vs. the spread during their 4-4 start to the year. That being said, should The U be +7.5 home underdogs on Saturday night in the Florida State at Miami betting matchup? FSU is just 5-3 on the year and they’ve lost three of their last four.

To be fair the Seminoles recent defeats have come against Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson – all ranked teams. Miami has been favored in their last five games, but have just a 2-3 SU record over that span. FSU picked up a 31-28 in this rivalry game last season, but Miami had won four straight in the series prior to that.

FSU Very Streaky

The Seminoles did their part, they won the games they had to have in their early schedule starting off 4-0 and getting up to #23 in the country. That run included victories over LSU and Louisville, but FSU couldn’t survive their gauntlet of the Demon Deacons, NC State, and Clemson – losing all three games to those ranked teams albeit by 10 points or less in each contest.

The ‘Noles do come into Florida State at Miami betting back on track after a 41-16 victory over Georgia Tech last week, although they were supposed to win that game as -24 point favorites. Even if it was a mismatch, FSU QB Jordan Travis throwing for 396 yards and 3 TDs and the team running for another 246 has to be a nice ego booster.

FSU has a top 20 rushing attack behind the two-headed monster (when healthy) of Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson who have both ran for over 480 yards this season Ward has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury and remains questionable but Benson has responded with 180 yards on just 25 carries the last two outings.

Miami to Upset When Everybody Fades?

Simply put this hasn’t been a Hurricanes team you can bet on this season. Sure they started off fine with a 70-13 victory over Bethune-Cookman and a 30-7 victory over Southern Miss but it’s been all downhill sense then. Miami lost 45-31 at home to Middle Tennessee State as a -25.5 favorite in what is a microcosm of their season.

+7.5 might seem like a lot for the Hurricanes to be getting at home in a rivalry game, but UM has dropped seven in a row ATS. They barely squeaked out a 14-12 win at Virginia last week in a game that took 4 OTs. The win over the Cavaliers featured no TDs and was only decided once teams had to go for mandatory 2-point conversions after the third OT.

Free Florida State at Miami Betting Pick

You’re really playing with fire when you bet on this Hurricanes squad. They were just -3 point favorites at Virginia last week and you think heading to OT if they get the win you’ll at least push. Nope, as it took the Hurricanes until the 4th OT just to get two points. FSU fans and alumni should be represented well here in-state and home field won’t even be that much of an advantage for the Hurricanes.

Free Pick: Florida State -7.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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