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NCAA Week 12 Georgia at Auburn Free Pick

Forget the +7, Tigers Want Upset Win

It’s a college football showdown in the NCAA week 12 Georgia at Auburn free pick when the #4 Bulldogs visit the #12 Tigers. Public bettors are split literally 50/50 on this battle as oddsmakers have listed Georgia as a -7 point favorite on the road at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers are undefeated at home this season, but the Bulldogs are on a mission trying to hold on to the last spot in the FBS playoff rankings.

Georgia Has Looked Shaky (At Times) the Last Month

NCAA week 12 Georgia at Auburn free pick
D’Andre Swift ran wild vs. Auburn last season with 186 yards on 17 carries.

Arguably the upset of the season in college football happened on October 12th when the South Carolina Gamecocks came into Athens and upset Georgia 17-20. Three INTs from Georgia QB Jake Fromm doomed the squad that day in a game the Bulldogs outgained SC 468 to 297.

Since that loss, Georgia has rattled off three straight wins. That includes shutting out Kentucky 21-0 but as -23.5 favorites and a 27-0 win over Missouri when Georgia was a -18.5 favorite. The Bulldogs also had an impressive 24-17 win at Florida on November 2nd in the mix. What you take from the last month-plus for UGA football is that their offense has had it’s struggles in failing to score more than 27 points since October 5th. The Tigers defense gives up less than 18 points per game which is why the total in the NCAA week 12 Georgia at Auburn free pick is just 43.

For all their offensive, what some would call mediocrity, Georgia has also pitched defensive shutouts in 2 of the last 3. The Bulldogs also held Florida to 278 yards including 21 rush yards on 19 carries. Auburn’s offense has one game scoring over 20 points in their last 4. Georgia has a top 5 defense in the country so points will be at a premium for the Tigers.

Can Auburn’s Defense Keep This One Close

NCAA week 12 Georgia at Auburn free pick
Can Bo Nix withstand the pressure from Georgia’s relentless defense?

Auburn lost this rivalry matchup by a score of 10-27 at Sanford Stadium. The Bulldogs were a -13 point favorite in that one and Auburn couldn’t keep it closer despite having veteran QB Jarrett Stidham under center. The Tigers are at home in this season’s matchup, but they also roll with a freshman QB in Bo Nix who has seen his share of growing pains this season.

Nix did have a good game two weeks ago against Missouri, throwing for 340 yards against Ole Miss but in a game the Tigers won just 20-14 as -17 home favorites. Nix had been held to less than 180 yards passing in the three games prior. Nix will also possibly be without leading rusher JaTarvious Winslow who sat last game against Ole Miss with a knee injury and is questionable vs. Georgia. Winslow’s presence might not even be enough as Georgia allows under 75 yards per game on the ground this year.

The Auburn defense is a top 20 unit vs. the run, which will be key against the Bulldogs’ top 25 rushing attack churning out 217 yards per game on the ground. Georgia had 44 carries for a whopping 309 yards in last years game though, a 7+ yard per carry average.

NCAA Week 12 Georgia at Auburn Free Pick

On paper this one is lining up to be a defensive struggle. The total of 43 looks like a very solid ‘under’ lean but ultimately the Bulldogs have a more experienced QB, a healthier running back, and a defense that will give Auburn’s QB Nix fits. 7 is a lot of points in a rivalry game, but Georgia travels well here.

Pick: Georgia Bulldogs -7

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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