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NCAAF Week 1 #18 Oregon State at San Jose State Betting Preview

Beavers Get Their Season Underway on Sunday Afternoon

Even though #18 OSU is over a two TD favorite in Sunday’s Oregon State at San Jose State betting matchup, this game might be way more interesting then it looks on paper. The Beavers are debuting a new QB D.J. Uiagelelei who has shown signs of brilliance in his previous tenure at Clemson, but also had a lot of poor performances towards the end and could have his confidence rattled.

San Jose State is getting +16.5 points at home – and with the benefit of already having a game under their belt. On paper last week’s 56-28 defeat at USC looked like a blowout, but the Spartans were down just 21-14 at the half and also covered the +31 point spread.

Why Oregon State Has Value in Week 1

Uigalelei struggled towards the end of his time at Clemson, but sometimes a fresh start is all that’s needed – see Bo Nix leaving Auburn and throwing for 3,500+ yards at Oregon last year. Uiagelelei still has a ton of experience playing 35 games in three seasons at Clemson and he wasn’t that horrible last season, tossing 22 TDs to 7 INTs while completing over 60% of his passes.

Uiagelelei also comes to a place with a solid system in place, as coach Jonathan Smith has improved the team in each of the past three seasons including a 10-3 mark in 2022 and the team’s first Bowl game win since 2013.

Oregon State also has the experience to have success even in their season opener. The entire starting offensive line and WR corps are upperclassmen, and last year’s leading rusher sophomore Damien Martinez (970 yards, 7 TDs) is also back.

Why San Jose State Has Value in Week 1

You have to wonder just where Uiagelelei’s confidence level is at as the one-time heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence at Clemson to having to enter the transfer portal in the offseason. OSU does offer a “fresh start” but it’s also not the most ideal QB room with 4-star freshman Aidan Chiles waiting in the wings and Ben Gulbranson, who led last year’s 30-3 win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl, also still with the program.

If the San Jose State defense can rattle Uiagelelei early, he may start looking over his shoulder and the Spartans should have confidence after having to square off against the best QB in the country last week. USC’s Caleb Williams did have 4 TD passes last week, but he was also just 18/25 for 278 yards.

SJSU may have the best QB in the Oregon State at San Jose State betting matchup. Chevan Cordeiro was named the Mountain West preseason Offensive Player of the Year and started off with 3 TD passes last week against the Trojans. The USC defense isn’t exactly stout, but the Spartans still had nearly 200 yards rushing on just 27 attempts in the opener.

Free Oregon State at San Jose State Betting Pick

Never underestimate the advantage San Jose State has in being able to knock off their offseason rust last week – something Oregon State has to do Sunday and on the road. The trust in Uiagelelei is down until he proves otherwise, and -16.5 is just too much to cover in this spot.

Free Pick: San Jose State +16.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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