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NCAAF TCU at Texas Week 5 Betting Preview

#9 Longhorns Scoring Points in Bunches

TCU at Texas week 5 betting looks like it has the potential to be a high scoring affair. The #9 Longhorns lead the country in scoring after posting 59-3 and 63-56 wins to start their 2020 season. TCU got off to a rough start in dropping a 37-34 opener to Iowa State, but the Horned Frog offense started to click in the 2nd half.

The betting total for Saturday afternoon’s meeting is 63 points and Texas is a 10-points favorite. The Longhorns have had their troubles with TCU as of late, dropping 5 of the last 6 including 3 of the last 4 in Austin. Last year’s meeting saw some points put up in a 37-27 TCU win, will we see a repeat of that this season?

TCU Should Be Able to Move the Football

The Horned Frogs started off slow last week, going down 16-7 at half vs. the Cyclones. It was the TCU opener though and ISU already had a game under their belt. Once the Horned Frogs shook off the rust, they rallied for 27 points in the 2nd half but ultimately fell short 37-34.

Besides getting back into game shape after the 1st half, another reason TCU started to click was because they made a QB switch from Matthew Downing to Max Duggan. The sophomore missed a month-and-a-half of camp with a heart condition, but entered to go 16/19 for 241 yards and 3 TD. Duggan had a hand that was cramping late in the game, but he still managed to throw a last second TD to Blair Conwright that allowed TCU to cover the +3.5 home underdog spread.

While TCU seems to have shored up some issues on offense, the defense was not indicative of a Gary Patterson unit in allowing 212 rushing yards to Iowa State. Things don’t get any easier in TCU at Texas week 5 betting against the Longhorns aerial show that is 7th in the country at 582.5 yards/game.

What to Think of Texas?

The Longhorns did a great job of battling back last week even after they were down two TDs with a little over 3 minutes left in the game. Sam Ehlinger led two scoring drives and added a 2-point conversion as well as a TD pass in OT to help the Longhorns stave off Texas Tech 63-56.

You have to wonder how Texas was even in that comeback predicament though as -17.5 favorites, albeit on the road in Lubbock. Red Raiders QB Alan Bowman had 325 yards and 5 TD, although he did throw 3 INT as well. The Texas defense also gave up a 75-yard TD scamper to Sarodorick Thompson in the 4th quarter.

The good news for the Longhorns is that Ehlinger now has 10 TD to just 1 INT on the season. Ehlinger threw for 321 yards at TCU with 2 TD, but he also tossed 4 INT. Duggan got the start vs. Texas last season and tossed for 273 while also adding 72 yards on the ground. Both QBs are familiar with the opposing defenses – and have had success as TCU notched the 37-27 win as -1.5 home favorites.

TCU at Texas Week 5 Betting Free Pick

63 is a ton of points for this betting total but both teams have shown the ability to move the ball, while also failing to stop their opponents last week. Five of the last six meetings between the two have produced less than 60 points, but things are a little different in 2020. This game either becomes one of those 45-42 nail biters – or ends 13-6. The former seems more likely.
Texas 35 – TCU 31

Free Pick: Over 63

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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