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College Football Pick: #25 Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos

Over/Under Pick for Friday Night’s Broncos at Lobos

It’s a Mountain West battle tonight at 9 p.m. E.T. as the #25 Boise State Broncos (8-2 Overall, 5-1 MWC) play the New Mexico Lobos (3-7 Overall, 1-5 MWC). The Broncos are second in the Mountain Division behind the 23rd ranked Utah State Aggies (9-1 Overall, 6-0 MWC). Boise State kicked off their conference schedule with a 19-13 loss to San Diego State. They have since gone 5-0 with their last victory being 24-17 against Fresno State. The Lobos six in sixth, or last, place in the same division. New Mexico started conference play by beating UNLV 50-14. Since then, they have lost every MWC game. Their last loss was 42-24 to Air Force. Our NCAAF Boise State plays New Mexico totals pick has the over/under at 60.5. The best spread for the Broncos is -19.5, while the top spread on the Lobos is at +21.0. Here’s our over/under.

Two High-Scoring Offenses

The Broncos are averaging 36.6 PPG. They are averaging just over 466 YPG in offense with 314 of those yards through the air. Boise State QB Brett Rypien has tossed 25 TD passes and seven INTs. Senior wideout A.J. Richardson has eight touchdown receptions. Bronco RB Alexander Mattison, who has rushed for over 800 yards, has accumulated eight scores.

New Mexico has been good for 30.2 PPG. They offer a balanced attack with about 200 or their 362 yards of offense coming from the air ball. Three Lobos QBs have combined for 25 TD passes and 15 INTs. Senior RB Tyrone Owens has struggled as of late. He has six TD runs, but has not scored in his last five games.

Lobo Defense Offers Up Yards and Points

How many points does New Mexico offer up on average? They give up 35.8 PPG. We expect them to allow about 48 tonight. The Broncos are allowing 23.0 PPG. We believe 14 to 20 will be scored by the home team tonight. Those totals take use comfortably over the 60.5 points listed for this game.

O/U in Last 15 Games

The totals have gone under if four of Boise State’s last six games. But it has gone over in seven of New Mexico’s last nine games. In combining these two stats, the over has hit nine-of-15 times. Note, when both teams played Air Force, there were a lot of points scored. There were 86 scored when the Broncos took on the Falcons and 66 when the Lobos lost to AF.

The Falcons have very similar stats on offense and defense to the Broncos. Thus, this Lobos matchup with Boise State could result in over 60 points being scored.

NCAAF Boise State Plays New Mexico Totals Pick

Our NCAAF Boise State plays New Mexico totals pick is the over at 60.5. We don’t think that the Lobos will be able to tame the Bronco attack, allowing a large number of points. Plus, we do think that on offense. the Lobos will make some headway tonight.

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pmroczka

Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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