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NCAA Week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State Free Pick

Beavers Can't Get Anything Going at Home This Season

The NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick seems like an interesting one for the fact that the Sun Devils are -2.5 favorites going on the road at Corvallis. The Beavers and the points seem like a good lean in this one, but they are just 1-4 at Reser Stadium on the year. ASU has dropped three in a row, are they still the play in this one?

Sun Devils Struggling on Defense

NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick
Yellen is a Mission Viejo HS product like Jordan Palmer and Mark Sanchez.

The total for the NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick is 56.5. The reason to lean towards an ‘over’ play in this one is because the Sun Devils cannot stop the pass as of late. ASU has allowed 31+ points in 3 of the last 4 games and let USC throw for 477 against them last week. UCLA completed 16 of 23 passes the game prior.

It’s obvious that teams are trying to attack the Arizona State run defense as UCLA rushed the ball 57 times for 217 on October 26th and Utah had 43 carries for 151 the game prior. Oregon State isn’t going to impress you on offense though, especially after amassing just 119 TOTAL yards last week against Washington.

The big question is how Herm Edwards’ offense will fare in the NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick? Injuries forced freshman Joey Yellen into the lineup last game vs.
USC and he responded admirably with 4 TD passes in the first action of his career – and with an early shoulder injury. Jayden Daniels (leg) could be back in action Saturday and he has two games of 3TD passes in his last three. The Oregon State defense has been OK for the most part lately though.

Oregon State Playing Well

NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick
Luton has the talent to push this game towards the ‘over’ 56.6

Not only are the Beavers at home and as an underdog in NCAA week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State free pick – they are playing some good football lately. ASU has wins in 2 of their last 3 and hung tight with a 7-19 loss to Washington last week.

It was a close-ish loss to the 11.5 favorite Huskies last week but Oregon State’s offensive performance leaves little to gloat about in the film room. The Beavers ran the ball 22 times for just 31 yards vs. the Huskies and QB Jake Luton threw for just 88 yards. Luton at least has the potential to light up Arizona State in this one though as he had 10 TD to just 1 INT in the four games prior. The ASU defense is 115th in the country vs. the pass. Oregon State would like to get their running game going, but that’s where the Sun Devils shine in boasting a top 20 defense vs. the rush.

The Beavers defense has looked much better as of late, including holding Washington QB Jacob Eason to just 175 yards passing last week. Oregon State also limited Cal to 282 total yards in a 21-17 road win for the Beavers on October 19th. There is a hiccup sandwiched in there as Arizona had a 529 yard offensive game on November 2nd but the Beavers won that game 56-38 behind multiple 100+ yard rushing games from both Artavis Pierce and Jermar Jefferson, the latter of whom absolutely torched Arizona State in last year’s meeting.

NCAA Week 12 Arizona State at Oregon State Free Pick

The Sun Devils won this game 52-24 a year ago in Tempe but that was also as a -22 point favorite. ASU did have a much more seasoned QB last year in Manny Wilkins though and Jefferson did rush for an amazing 254 yards and 2 TD in the Oregon State loss. Arizona State has two freshman QBs to roll with in this one and in a tough trip to the Pacific Northwest. Got to like the points here.

Pick: Oregon State Beavers +2.5

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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