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NCAA Week 11 Kent State at Bowling Green Pick and Betting Preview

Take the Points or Expect a Blowout for Tuesday MAC-tion?

Oddsmakers are liking the Golden Flashes in the Week 11 MAC Kent State at Bowling Green pick, listing the visitors as -20.5 favorites. Did Kent State impress that much in a 27-23 home win over Eastern Michigan last week, or is BGSU nearly a 3 TD home underdog because they were blown out 38-3 at Toledo in their opener?

The betting total for Tuesday night’s matchup is also in a freefall, dropping to 55 after a 59.5 open. One reason the ‘over’ might be a solid lean is because Kent State won this matchup 62-20 last season, and also 35-28 in 2018. Bowling Green had won five straight in the series before that though.

Golden Flashes Ready to Get Running Game Going

Kent State was a decent 5-3 in the MAC last season, but they got their 2020 campaign started off right with a 27-23 win at home over Eastern Michigan, albeit as -4.5 favorites. Kent State used their ground attack to get to 1-0 on the year, scampering for 212 yards on 46 carries.

Golden Flashes coach Sean Lewis has some options in his ground game, as three different players had at least 55 yards rushing against Eastern Michigan. This is key in the Kent State at Bowling Green pick because the Falcons allowed 310 yards rushing to Toledo last week. Toledo did have the #2 rushing attack in the MAC last season however (Kent State 6th).

Kent State’s versatility on offense extends to their passing game as well, as Dustin Crum returns after a  2,600 yard, 20 TD, 2 INT effort a season ago. Crum has his top receiver Isaiah McKoy back as well, and McKoy started the season right with 8 catches for 104 yards and a TD in the opener. Toledo QB Eli Peters threw 4 TD against BGSU in the opener.

Bowling Green Offense Nonexistent

A poor offensive effort from Bowling Green can somewhat be forgiven after having to go on the road in the season opener after a shorted offseason. The Falcons did managed 139 yards on the ground, but the passing game was nowhere to be found with QB Matt McDonald going 8/30 for 128 yards and 2 INTs.

The reason the Falcons output was so disappointing last week was because Toledo had the worst total defense in the MAC last season. The Rockets were also last in passing defense in the conference, making McDonald’s showing that much worse.

As bad as the Bowling Green offense was last week, their defense also gave up over 300 yards on the ground as well as 4 TD passes. The Falcons need to find an answer in a hurry though, as they gave up 375 yards on the ground and through the air in last year’s 62-20 loss to Kent State. Crum was 26/31 for 310 yards and 3 TD in last year’s meeting.

Free Kent State at Bowling Green Pick

20.5 is a lot of points in this matchup that Bowling Green has won in 5 of the last 7 years. The Falcons lost by just a score in 2018, but last year’s 42 point loss is reason enough to stay away from the side. The total is dropping, but Kent State hit the 55 (and then some) by themselves in last year’s meeting.
Kent State 45 – Bowling Green 27

Free Pick: Over 55

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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