The NBA Finals return to Oklahoma City for Game 5 on Monday night. The series is tied 2-2 after the Thunder won Game 4 in Indiana by a score of 111-104. Tip-off is set for 8:30PM ET at Paycom Center. The Thunder are 68-14 in the regular season and 14-7 in the playoffs. Indiana finished 50-32 and is 14-9 in the postseason.
This has been a tight series so far. Each team has won once at home and once on the road. Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite in Game 5. The total is set at 224.5. The Thunder are trying to win their first title since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City. Indiana is chasing its first ever championship.
OKC Preview – Caruso, Defense and SGA Making the Difference
Alex Caruso has been a key piece for the Thunder off the bench. He’s scored 20 points in two of the last three games and is averaging 14.8 points and 2.5 steals in the Finals. Caruso had 20 points on 7-of-9 shooting in Game 4, helping Oklahoma City finish the game on a 12-1 run.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder with 35 points in Game 4. He also added three steals and hit 12 of 24 shots. His strong play in the fourth quarter helped seal the win and shift momentum back to OKC. SGA is averaging over 30 points per game this series.
The Thunder are the best defensive team in the league. They hold opponents to 43.5% shooting, and they are top two in points allowed. Chet Holmgren had 15 rebounds and added a block in Game 4. The team has won 71 of its last 88 games and is 44-8 at home this season. They’ve also covered the spread in 51 of their last 83 games overall.
IND Preview – Looking to Bounce Back in a Tough Spot
The Pacers had Game 4 in their hands but gave up a late lead and lost. They were outscored 12-1 to close the game. Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had seven assists in the loss. He stressed the importance of bouncing back fast and not letting one loss turn into two.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and added five assists and eight rebounds. He brings experience from Toronto’s 2019 title run. Andrew Nembhard had 10 points, and Myles Turner added 12, but both were held in check late. Indiana shot 43% from the field in Game 4.
Indiana is 27-23 on the road this year and will have to win at least once more in Oklahoma City to win the series. They average 117.1 points per game but rank near the bottom in rebounds and free throw attempts. The Pacers are 5-5 in the last 10 meetings against OKC and have not faced a Game 5 tied 2-2 yet in this postseason run.
Betting Prediction
Oklahoma City is -9.5 on the spread and -450 on the moneyline. Indiana is +333 to win outright. The Thunder have been strong at home and are 33-9 against the spread as home favorites. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 49-52-1 ATS overall and have not been in this type of spot yet in the playoffs.
The Thunder’s defense and depth give them the edge in this game. Caruso has been a game-changer, and the Thunder have the better closing lineup. The Pacers may hang around early, but OKC should pull away late. Final score prediction: Thunder 112, Pacers 99.
Pick: Thunder -9.5
