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NBA Playoffs Suns at Timberwolves Game 1 Betting Preview

Phoenix Swept the Regular Season Series

Minnesota had an outside chance at the top seed in the West heading into the final day of the regular season, but instead they’ll be #3 as the 2024 NBA playoffs get underway with the Suns at Timberwolves game 1 betting matchup. Minnesota (56-26) is coming off a season in which they posted their most wins since 2004.

Even though Phoenix (49-33) is the lower seed in this series, many people believe they are the more talented team on paper. The Suns do have a lot of star power and swept the regular season series between the teams, but oddsmakers still have the T’Wolves as -2 point favorites for Game 1.

Why the Suns Have Value at +2

Phoenix feels like a team that could play a bit bored at times during the regular season, but will turn things on when the games count. That was somewhat evident towards the end of the year when they won six of their last eight to get into the #6 seed.

A team that has Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal is going to be a tough out in the playoffs. Booker has averaged 27.3, 23.3, and 33.7 ppg over his last three postseasons while Durant has played in 166 playoff games in his career. This is the first year that Beal legitimately has a chance at a deep postseason run after 1st round exits in his last two trips with the Wizards.

The Suns beat Minnesota by 18 and 10 in the two games in Phoenix this season and came to the Twin Cities last Sunday and delivered a 125-106 victory as +2.5 underdogs. The Suns won three straight road games to close out the regular season and were 24-17 going away this year.

Why the Timberwolves Have Value at -2

Anybody who saw the T’Wolves in the Play-In Tournament games the last two seasons knows that the Target Center can get electric in a postseason setting. Minnesota even snagged a home playoff win last year against eventual NBA Champion Denver and were 30-11 on their own court this season.

Minnesota did lose to Phoenix last Sunday when they had a chance at the top seed in the West – but being #1 would’ve required Oklahoma City to lose to Dallas as -19.5 favorites which was a long shot. The Timberwolves looked flat, but they also likely realistically knew they were headed to the #3 seed while Phoenix was in a must-win to avoid the Play-In Tournament.

Minnesota was able to get Karl-Anthony Towns back for the last two games of the regular season and now he’s had nearly a week to rest and prepare for the playoffs. Rudy Gobert also grabbed 15+ rebounds in four of the last five games of the regular season so Minnesota has their front court back to full strength.

Free Suns at Timberwolves Game 1 Betting Pick

Betting is split exactly 50/50 on this game which is somewhat surprising considering you’d think the star power of the Suns would draw more public action. Phoenix is talented and deadly from the outside for sure, but Minnesota had a dominating run at home this year and should have an edge in the front court.

Free Pick: Timberwolves -2

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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