Oddsmakers are calling the November 12th NBA free pick a virtual toss-up, making the Mavs -1 favorites at Chicago on Monday night. Dallas is 0-6 on the road this season but has had some big wins at home over the past week, beating the Wizards by 19 and the Thunder by 15. The Bulls have lost 4 out of their last 5 at home, but are coming off a 1 point win over Cleveland at the United Center on Saturday. Do the Mavs get over their road woes tonight or do they simply have a complex away from Big D.
Will the Mavs Use Their Inside Game to Dominate Tonight
The November 12th NBA free pick marks the second and final meeting between these two teams in the 2018/19 season. The Mavs scored a 115-109 win on October 22nd, covering the -5 number. The inside force of Deandre Jordan was dominant in that game as it should be again tonight. DJ scored 18 points while grabbing 16 boards while Luka Doncic added 19. Wesley Matthews also added 20 points in the first meeting but he’s listed as doubtful tonight with a hamstring injury which does benefit Chicago. Harrison Barnes was not in the lineup the first game against Chicago but he’s back for tonight’s rematch. Dennis Smith is also shooting 67% from 3-point range the last four games so Dallas has a lot of options tonight.
Dallas has won 2 of their last 3 and looked very impressive against both Washington and OKC. They had a 15 point loss at Utah mixed in there but it was on the second leg of a back-to-back and the Mavs were nearly 10 point road ‘dogs. The Mavs are in the top half of the NBA in scoring, but their defense should be able to be exploited by the Bulls tonight. Dallas ranks last in the league in opponents 3 point percentage, 28th in shooting percentage against, and give up the 23rd most amount of points in the league.
Can Bulls Use Their Offense to Get the Home Win?
For as questionable as the Mavs may be on defense so far in 2018/19, the Bulls are facing those same issues in regards to their offense. The Bulls have failed to break 100 points in 3 of the last 4 games The Bulls have won 2 of their last 3, but they came against the Knicks and Cavs, not exactly the league’s top brass this season. Even with the NBA’s new increase in scoring this season, Chicago has broken 110 points just twice in the last 9 games. Their 106.3 ppg average is 22nd in the NBA this season but Chicago could find some success beyond the arc tonight. The Mavs don’t defend the perimeter well, and the Bulls shoot 36.9% (9th in NBA) from three point range.
The November 12th NBA free pick over/under of 212.5 is hard to gauge mostly because the Bulls have struggled with scoring so much lately. If Chicago pulls off the W it will likely be due to another big night from Zach Lavine. The Bulls PG has scored 20+ points in every game this season and had a 41 point night at Madison Square Garden a week ago. Lavine had 34 vs. the Mavs in the 1st meeting but beyond him Chicago doesn’t have much scoring help. Ryan Arcidiacono had 15 points Saturday and should help with the Bulls offensive efficiency tonight. It’s obvious Dallas is the much more talented team in this matchup however.
November 12th NBA Free Pick Betting
The Bulls opened as -2 point favorites in this contest but betting has shifted that to Dallas -1. The Mavericks being 0-6 on the road definitely isn’t an ideal trend but they have played very well in the last week. Chicago doesn’t have much firepower beyond Lavine, and the Mavs arsenal of Doncic, Smith Jr., Jordan and Co. make them the side to back tonight.
NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1