MNF Week 7 Props Form: Bears at Patriots
New England a -8.5 Favorite for the Game
The MNF week 7 props sheet is a bit harder to decipher this week because New England hasn’t officially confirmed who will be their starting QB. Although Mac Jones (ankle) is expected to return from the injury list, it wouldn’t be too far out of the Bill Belichick playbook for him to alternate QBs or turn back to Bailey Zappe early if Jones struggles.
The O/U is just 39.5 for the Bears vs Patriots matchup, and Chicago may have a hard time coming by any offense as these matchups with young QBs are the ones Belichick has especially dominated. The prop numbers are going to be low, but let’s see where there could be some value:
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 60.5 yards
This is going to be the chalk play of the night, and it’s possible that the return of Damien Harris (hamstring) puts a dent into Rhamondre Stevenson’s carries, but 60.5 yards still seems very doable for a variety of reasons.
Stevenson has looked like a lead back the last two weeks, running for 161 yards in the 29-0 win over Detroit and following that up with 76 yards and 2 TDs in a big win over Cleveland last week. With Chicago having the second worst rush defense in the league, it’s possible that both Stevenson and Harris (51.5) go over their totals here.
Hunter Henry Over 2.5 receptions
The Patriots have worked Hunter Henry more into their offense the last two games, as he has 12 targets with 4 catches in each game. Same of that success may have had to do with Zappe being the QB, but one would think Jones will try to continue to keep his TE happy in his return.
Justin Fields Over 157.5 Passing Yards
Justin Fields has went well over this total in three straight games (174, 208, 190) and although he’s going to see a lot of looks from the Belichick defense and may be very confused in MNF week 7 props, that number is just too low. Even though this is likely the worst offense the Patriots will face all season, every QB has at least 158 yards vs. them this season even Mitch Trubisky who was 21/33 for 168 in the season opener.
Khalil Herbert Under 30.5 Rush Yards
Khalil Herbert played well in David Montgomery’s absence, but the last two games since Chicago’s RB1 has returned he has 4 carries and 7 carries. Herbert had 75 yards last week vs. Washington, but 64 of those came on one play.
Cole Kmet Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
One of the reasons Cole Kmet only has 10 catches for 116 yards through six games is because he’s really been nothing more than a glorified offensive lineman this season. Kmet has been forced to help in pass protection since Chicago’s offensive line has been so bad, a trend which will likely continue with the types of pressures that Belichick can draw up to get to Fields.
Matthew Judon Over 0.75 Sacks
Fields has gotten sacked 23 times this season, which is the second most in the NFL but also on 100+ less attempts than Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz who are ahead of him. Matt Judon has a sack in five of six games this season and should add to that tally with +100 odds on Monday.