The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:30 PM ET. The Phillies come in at 49-35 on the season, while the Padres are 45-38. Both teams are trying to stay in the race in the National League.
This is the fourth series between the teams in 2025. Philadelphia swept San Diego at home earlier in June. The Padres got back at them in April by winning two out of three at Petco Park. Each game this year has been decided by three runs or less, except for one blowout win by the Phillies on June 17.
PHI Preview – Wheeler Looks to Stay Hot at Home
Zack Wheeler is having one of the best years of his career. He has a 2.45 ERA and has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Against the Padres in his career, Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in nine starts.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA as a team. Their bullpen has been shaky at times, with a 4.24 ERA, but they have strong arms like Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering who pitched clean innings in Sunday’s win over Atlanta. The Phillies are allowing 4.05 runs per game this year.
On offense, the Phillies are scoring 4.60 runs per game and batting .247. Bryce Harper has been out since early June but could return this week. Without him, the team has struggled to get timely hits. J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber have picked up some of the slack, but the lineup hasn’t been consistent.
SD Preview – Waldron Back at Ballpark Where He’s Had Success
Matt Waldron takes the mound for San Diego. He has allowed 10 or more runs twice in his last three starts, but also threw a strong game earlier this month in Philadelphia. In that start on June 19, Waldron pitched seven innings and gave up just one run while striking out six.
The Padres bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this year. They have a 3.14 ERA with solid numbers in WHIP and strikeouts. Robert Suarez blew a save Sunday but had only two losses before that. Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada have been reliable in late innings.
San Diego is scoring 4.16 runs per game and batting .230. They’ve been one of the best teams in MLB at hitting the under. On the road, they’ve gone under the total in 26 of their last 40 games. They have also covered the run line in 12 of their last 18 road games.
Betting Prediction
Philadelphia is a heavy -220 favorite. The total is set at 9 runs. The Phillies have a strong home record, and Wheeler has been very good at Citizens Bank Park. Waldron has pitched well in Philly once, but his recent form has been shaky.
With both teams trending under the total and Philadelphia having the edge in the starting pitching matchup, the Phillies are the better side here. San Diego’s bullpen could keep it close, but Philadelphia’s offense should do enough to pull away. A final score of 5-2 or 4-1 looks likely.
Pick: Phillies -1.5
