The American League Wild Card Series begins Tuesday night in the Bronx, with the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 PM ET. The Yankees finished the regular season 94-68, while Boston ended at 89-73. Both teams enter the postseason with new aces leading their rotations after busy offseasons.
This is the first time the Yankees and Red Sox are meeting in the expanded wild card format. Boston won the season series 7-3, taking two of three at home earlier in September. However, the Yankees enter with the better overall record and the advantage of playing all three games in New York. The winner of this best-of-three moves on to face the top-seeded Houston Astros in the AL Division Series.
Yankees Preview – Fried Sets the Plan
The Yankees averaged 5.24 runs per game in 2025, one of the top marks in the AL. Their lineup was powered by Aaron Judge, who finished among league leaders in home runs again, and strong production from Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt. The Yankees allowed 4.23 runs per contest, finishing with a totals record of 76-81 to the Under. That balance helped them stay in the playoff picture even with Gerrit Cole out most of the season.
Max Fried starts Game 1. Signed to a long-term deal last winter, Fried finished the season at 19-7 with a 3.61 ERA. He closed the year on a dominant run, going 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA over his last seven starts. Against Boston, he was 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts this season. Fried has postseason experience from his time in Atlanta, including a win in the 2021 World Series.
The Yankees bullpen is one of the deepest in the playoffs. David Bednar (2.32 ERA) and Camilo Doval (72 strikeouts in 65 innings) handle late-inning work. Lefty Tim Hill and Luke Weaver provide length, while Devin Williams gives manager Aaron Boone another option in big moments. This bullpen posted a 3.65 ERA over the season and has the ability to shorten games once Fried exits.
Red Sox Preview – Crochet Brings Strikeouts
The Red Sox averaged 4.85 runs per game and allowed 4.17, giving them one of the better run differentials in the AL. They were 76-82 to the total, with more games trending Under thanks to a strong starting staff. Offensively, Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, and Trevor Story carried the lineup, while rookie Ceddanne Rafaela gave them added speed and power. Boston finished five games back of New York in the AL East but matched up well head-to-head all year.
Garrett Crochet gets the ball in Game 1. The left-hander went 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and led the majors with 255 strikeouts. He closed the season on a four-game win streak, including a 12-strikeout performance against New York on September 14. Crochet has been especially effective against the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 39 strikeouts in four starts against them this year. He has handled Aaron Judge well, striking him out 10 times in 15 at-bats.
The Boston bullpen was steady overall, finishing with a 3.50 ERA. Garrett Whitlock was the most reliable option with a 2.25 ERA in 72 innings, while veteran Aroldis Chapman provided late-inning stability. Steven Matz and Brennan Bernardino give manager Alex Cora left-handed depth, and Justin Slaten has been a useful middle reliever. Injuries thinned out the group late in the year, but this staff still has enough quality arms to protect leads in close games.
Betting Prediction
Oddsmakers list the Yankees around -135 with a total of 7 runs. The Covers projection leans New York to win 4.15 to 3.61 and also shows value on the Over. Both starters have been dominant, but these offenses are capable of breaking through once lineups see pitchers multiple times. Boston’s success against New York this season suggests a close game, but the Yankees have momentum at home.
Fried and Crochet should control the early innings, but this series is unlikely to be decided by starters alone. New York’s bullpen is deeper, and their lineup has shown more consistent production. Boston has had the edge in strikeouts, but the Yankees’ ability to hit for power at home could tilt the balance late. With both teams scoring above their season averages in September, the safer play is on runs being scored.
Predicted score: Yankees 5, Red Sox 3. New York’s home field and bullpen depth should give them the upper hand, and the game projects to finish Over the total of 7 runs.
Pick: Yankees -135, Over 7
