The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals begin a four-game series on Monday night at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET in St. Louis. The Cubs lead the NL Central with a 46-31 record while the Cardinals are 42-36, sitting 4.5 games back. This is the first time these rivals meet in 2025.
Chicago enters the series after dropping three of four, allowing 38 runs in those four games. St. Louis had a five-game win streak snapped Sunday with a 4-1 loss to Cincinnati. These teams last met in August 2024, when the Cubs took three of four in Wrigley Field.
CHC Preview – Can the Bats Back Up Ben Brown?
The Cubs’ offense is scoring 5.42 runs per game, with a .250 team average. Ian Happ is heating up with 8 home runs in June, after only 3 in the first two months. He slugged .573 this month, with 7 homers in his last 12 games. Chicago’s lineup also includes productive hitters like Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel, who are both slugging over .450.
Chicago starts rookie Ben Brown, who is 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA across 13 starts. He’s allowing nearly 5 earned runs per outing in June, with a 4.8 ERA and 1.6 walks per start over his last five. Brown hasn’t faced the Cardinals before and has given up 6 or more hits in four of his last five games.
The Cubs’ bullpen ERA is 3.16, but it has struggled lately, posting a 6.47 ERA over the last 3 games. Key arms like Ryan Pressly (4.03 ERA) and Caleb Thielbar (2.25 ERA) have had mixed results. Injuries to key pitchers like Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Javier Assad have thinned the rotation and middle relief depth.
STL Preview – Can Liberatore Keep the Cubs in Check?
St. Louis is scoring 4.69 runs per game and giving up 4.26. They’ve been stronger at home (24-15) than on the road, and the offense has been more consistent in St. Louis. The team is hitting .251 with a .308 OBP, and has averaged over 5 runs per game in June. Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt lead the team in extra-base hits.
Matthew Liberatore takes the mound with a 4-6 record and 4.08 ERA. In two career starts vs the Cubs, he has a 4.38 ERA. His June numbers are solid, but he has not made it past 6 innings in any of his last five starts. He’s allowing a .253 average to right-handed hitters this season.
The Cardinals bullpen has a 3.41 ERA, led by Ryan Helsley (3.67 ERA) and JoJo Romero (2.74 ERA). This unit has been sharp recently, with Phil Maton and Riley O’Brien combining for six scoreless innings in their last three outings. The team’s pitching staff has also walked fewer batters than the Cubs and given up fewer home runs overall.
Betting Prediction
Both teams are priced at -110 on the moneyline, with the total set at 9.0. The Cubs have hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in 39 of 75 games and the full game under in 15 of their last 24. The Cardinals are trending over at home, hitting the team total over in 25 of their last 39 home games.
St. Louis has the better bullpen and is more consistent at home. Chicago has the more explosive offense, but the injuries to their rotation are catching up. Ben Brown’s recent form is shaky, and St. Louis could take advantage early. With both starters owning mid-4 ERAs, the over is in play too. Final score prediction: Cardinals 6, Cubs 5.
Pick: Cardinals -110
