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MLB Tuesday October 4th Giants at Padres Betting Preview

Playoff Seeding Still on the Line

With Philadelphia’s win over Houston on Monday night, the Brewers are eliminated from postseason contention and all of the MLB playoff teams are set. The only thing left to determine in the October 4th Giants at Padres betting matchup is seeding, with San Diego currently sitting in the #5 slot which would mean an opening round meeting with the Mets.

The Padres are just a game up on Philadelphia, and are -156 favorites in Tuesday’s penultimate contest of the regular season. San Diego picked up a 7-4 victory on Monday as -171 favorites, pushing their mark to 12-5 against San Francisco this season. SF is actually 11-3 in their last 14, so they’re still putting up a fight despite 80-80 record after winning 100+ games a year ago.

Giants Have Value Here

San Francisco had been playing well prior to Monday’s loss, going 11-2 in their previous 13 games while posting an 18-10 record in September. Even in the defeat in game one, the Giants went into the 8th inning in a scoreless tie before relievers Shelby Miller and Jarlin Garcia allowed 7 ER.

The Giants also rallied for 4 runs in the top of the 9th on Monday and had the bases loaded before Padres reliever Josh Hader finally closed the door. San Francisco still managed just 5 hits on the night though, and 1-5 in their order went a combined 0-14.

Carlos Rodon (14-8, 2.88 ERA) makes his last start of the season for the Padres, making himself some money this season after pitching over 110 IP to earn a player opt-out after the year. Rodon has held opponents scoreless in his last three outings at home, but has allowed 6ER over 9.2 IP in his last two road starts. Rodon has a 3.73 road ERA this season compared to 1.93 at Oracle Park.

San Diego Better Off to Lose?

The Padres have clinched their berth in the playoffs, with the current path going through the slumping Mets (who are still 98-61 on the year) and then the 110-win Dodgers. Even with the Mets losing the NL East late in the season to Atlanta, They’d still be at home with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitching twice in the best of three series.

It might be a better for San Diego to lose in the October 4th Giants at Padres matchup to avoid having to face Scherzer/deGrom and then the Dodgers who they are 5-14 against head-to-head this season. The Phillies are probably saying the same thing ahead of their final two contests against Houston however so it might be best to fade both San Diego and Philadelphia (+184) on Tuesday night.

Manager Bob Melvin did give Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, and Austin Nola the night off on Monday, and we could easily see Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth, and/or others getting some rest prior to the postseason.

Free October 4th Giants at Padres Betting Pick

Although the Padres don’t have a ton of incentive to win on Tuesday, they still have value with Sean Manaea (7-9, 5.15 ERA) for the simple fact he’s trying to audition to be on the postseason roster. Three of his last four outings in September opponents scored 2 ER or less against Manaea, and the one they scored 3 in was at Coors Field.

Ultimately though it’s just not worth laying -156 on a Padres team that could be resting players and could very well be tanking this game. The Giants had been playing well their last 15 games and are finishing strong, with Rodon getting one more audition for a long term contract this offseason.

Free Pick: Giants +132


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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