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MLB Thursday May 5th Marlins at Padres Betting Preview

Miami a Trap Play Here?

The line for the May 5th Marlins at Padres betting series opener is a little mystifying, as Miami is a -115 road favorite for Thursday night’s matchup. San Diego may be a bit road weary after having to play a double-header on Wednesday due to a Tuesday rainout, but the Marlins also just got swept at home against Arizona.

San Diego (16-9) is back home after a 6-2 road trip, and are 5-2 in their last 7 at Petco Park. The Padres remain a game back from the Dodgers in the NL West, while Miami (12-12) is also in a somewhat surprising second place position in the East. Oddsmakers are also expecting a pitching duel in this contest with an O/U of just 7.5.

Miami Pitching Staff Struggling

The Marlins are hopeful for a solid outing from Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.10 ERA) on Thursday night, as they’ve run into a bit of a rough stretch with 5+ runs allowed in 5 of their last 6 games. The left-hander has been great so far this season, with 2 hits and just 1 ER allowed in three of his four starts. His lone poor outing was giving up 4ER over 4.1 IP against the Cardinals in his second start of the year.

Miami needs a bounce back win after battling back from a 6-3 deficit on Wednesday only to blow a 7-6 lead in the 9th inning as the Diamondbacks completed the sweep. Arizona is 7-2 over their last 9, but that’s still a poor outing for the Marlins at home.

The good news for Miami is that Jesus Aguilar is red hot, going 10 for his last 19 (.526) and he and Jazz Chisholm have combined for 8 RBI the last two games. San Diego also used 8 relievers on Wednesday in their double header so are a bit thin in the bullpen.

San Diego Fighting Fatigue?

The good news for the Padres coming back home after a double header in Cleveland on Wednesday is that Miami is making the cross country flight as well after their six game home stand. San Diego is just 6-4 at Petco Park this season however.

San Diego split with a 5-4 win and a 6-5 loss in the double header Wednesday at Progressive Field, their 8th straight time scoring at least 5 runs. That trend faces a challenge against Luzardo in the May 5th Marlins at Padres betting matchup, and the San Diego lineup has gone 4-16 against the left-hander so they have limited experience.

Mike Clevinger returned to the Padres on Wednesday, which means Thursday starter Nick Martinez could soon be the odd man out in San Diego’s current six man rotation. Martinez could be an asset in the Padres bullpen, as he’s held opponents to 2 ER or less in three of his four starts.

Free May 5th Marlins at Padres Betting Pick

56% of the public is on San Diego in this spot with some value at home at just -105. The side could really go either way though, with Miami on a four game losing streak but the Padres coming back after a double-header on Wednesday. Ultimately this looks like it will be the pitcher’s duel that oddsmakers are expecting, with both offenses a bit tired from the cross-country flight and two people on the mound who have been great this season.

Free Pick: Under 7.5

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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