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MLB Thursday June 30th Brewers at Pirates Betting Preview

Trap Seems to Be Laid Here

Milwaukee has a 13 game lead over Pittsburgh in the NL Central, but yet are just -122 favorites in June 30th Brewers at Pirates betting when a four game series gets underway on Thursday night. That line seems like a trap, especially since the Brewers have gone 6-0 against the Bucs so far this season.

Another reason the Brewers seem priced too low is because they come into this series on a four game win streak while Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five. Is this a classic case of overthinking – or is the fact that 85% of the public are on Milwaukee confirmation of a red flag game on Thursday’s slate.

Brewers Offense Coming to Life

Milwaukee has scored at least five runs in each of their four wins during the current streak, including a 10-3 victory over Toronto on June 26th. Christian Yelich hitting .400 over the past five games is a welcome site to Brewers fans.

Milwaukee is coming off a quick two game sweep in Tampa Bay following a 4-3 home stand. Those wins at the Trop pushed the Brewers road win streak to five games and they’ve won their last five games at PNC Park. Overall Milwaukee is 39-13 in their last 52 meetings with Pittsburgh which again makes one wonder why the line is just -122 for the visitors.

Are oddsmakers not liking Adrian Houser (4-8, 4.50 ERA) on the mound in the June 30th Brewers at Pirates betting contest? Houser gave up 5ER in his last outing, and has now allowed 4+ in four of his last six starts. The right-hander has a 5.50 ERA in 7 road starts compared to 3.63 in 7 home games.

Pirates in Line for the Upset?

Pittsburgh is +104 on Thursday and Houser has had his share of struggles recently for Milwaukee. The Pirates have not faced the Milwaukee starter this season, but are just 7-40 as a team vs. the right-hander.

The Pirates are coming off an 8-7 win against Washington that wrapped up a 1-4 road trip. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 home games but have lost 12-8 (+156), 3-1 (+150), and 3-2 (+134) in three games at PNC Park against the Brewers this season.

JT Brubaker (1-7, 4.14 ERA) finally got his first win of the season on June 20th in a 12-1 victory over the Cubs. Brubaker couldn’t keep that momentum going last Saturday though, allowing 3ER over 6.0 IP in what ended up being a 6-5 Tampa Bay victory. The right-hander had a no-decision in that game and is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA in 6 home starts.

Free June 30th Brewers at Pirates Betting Pick

Milwaukee is a no-brainer play here – which is why they actually aren’t. Milwaukee is on a winning streak and is 6-0 against the Pirates in 2022 yet are just -122 on the moneyline?

Houser has had some issues lately for the Brewers and Pittsburgh has been solid at home this season. This is a contrarian play on the Pirates, who just 15% of the betting public is backing.

Free Pick: Pirates +104

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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