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MLB Sunday June 16th Guardians at Blue Jays Betting Preview

Rubber Match of the Series

First place Cleveland (44-24) shoots for the series win in the June 16th Guardians at Blue Jays betting matchup as they wrap up an 8-game road trip on Sunday. Toronto meanwhile wants to set the tone before these two teams meet up again next weekend at Progressive Field.

Toronto (34-36) has been favored all weekend winning 3-1 Friday at -148 but losing 5-0 on Saturday with a -121 price tag. The trend of the Blue Jays being favored continues in the series finale, and a whopping 76% are on the home team at -130.

Why the Guardians Have Value on Sunday

Cleveland is 20 games above .500 on the season, so any time you can get them at plus money there is some value. The Guardians are also 23-16 on the road this season compared to Toronto being just a game above .500 at the Rogers Centre in 2024.

Cleveland didn’t do much offensively in Saturday’s 5-0 loss, but they have outhit Toronto 17-10 in the first two games of this series. It’s going to be tough sledding for the Guardians offense on Sunday against Jays’ starter Jose Berrios, but the Toronto pitcher was tagged for 3 ER over 5.2 IP (2 HR) on Monday in a loss to Milwaukee. Steven Kwan had 3 hits on Saturday, and is 2-4 with a HR in his career vs. Berrios.

Cleveland aims for the series win behind Ben Lively (6-2, 2.59 ERA) who is on a nice four game stretch. Lively has allowed 5 total runs over his last four starts (23.1 IP) and the Guardians have won his last five appearances. Only two Toronto batters have ever faced Lively.

Why the Blue Jays Have Value on Sunday

The betting public is all over Toronto which is usually a red flag, but it’s interesting the Blue Jays don’t seem like an easy play in this spot. Lively has been very solid for Cleveland over the past month, but he also has a 3.09 ERA on the road compared to a dominating 1.90 mark at home.

The Blue Jays were efficient on Saturday, tallying their 5 runs on just 7 hits with only one extra base hit – a double by Daulton Varsho. What Toronto needs here is some consistency, as Friday night they had just one run on 3 hits – and two of them were Ernie Clement doubles.

It’s a great testament to how great Berrios (5-5, 2.93 ERA) has been this season that his 3 ER allowed on Monday while pitching into the 6th is considered a horrible outing. Berrios has allowed 2 runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season.

Free June 16th Guardians at Blue Jays Betting Pick

Sunday’s O/U of 7.5 proves that this will probably be a pitcher’s duel and the odds are that all three games of the series will likely hit the under. As for the side – the Guardians are the overall better of the two teams and with the amount of public betting on the Jays – combined with Cleveland being plus money the play is on the visitors.

Free Pick: Guardians +110

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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