The May 10th MLB free pick is a total play as oddsmakers have set the O/U at 7.5 between Minnesota (Jose Berrios) and the Los Angeles Angels (Garrett Richards). For the game, the line has been set at LAA -145 as they have won six of their last eight. There’s some pretty good value in the Twins at +135 however as they are winners of five straight road games.
As for the total, at first glance an under might seem like a solid play with Richards on the hill. Then again, both these teams have the offenses clicking so an ‘over’ would seem like a good pick too. Let’s break it down further to get on the winning side of this West Coast tilt.
Is Richards’ a Recipe for the ‘Under?’
The Angels’ Richards might get lost a bit in the hub-bub over Japanese sensation Shoehei Ohtani. The right hander is putting together a very solid year however with a 4-1 record and a 3.93 ERA. One of the reasons the May 10th MLB free pick could favor an ‘under’ play is because Richards has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. Another thing to note that could favor the ‘under’ is that Minnesota is hitting just .140 against Richards in 37 AB. Two of the Twins leading hitters, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, are a combined 0-12 in their career against the Angels pitcher.
Minnesota’s pitching performance could also favor a a solid under 7.5 play – if Berrios can regain his early season magic. The Twins right hander looked like he was on pace or Cy Young contention as he pitched three 0ER performances through his first four starts of the season. The third year player has a very small sample size against Angels batters (one start in 2017 – 2ER in 6.0 IP) but they are just 5-25 (.200) career wise.
Too Good of Offenses to Risk an Under Play?
Obviously the way that both of these teams have combined to win 11 of their last 13 games has to feature some offense. The Twins have scored 5+ runs in six straight games. LF Eddie Rosario is hitting .438 (14-32) with 3HR in the last 7 days and Escobar has added another 3 long balls while batting 10-28 (.357). The Angels aren’t too bad either with a top 5 scoring offense in baseball. Los Angeles has 3 games of 8 runs, a 10-run output, and a 12-run output in just their last 7 games. Mike Trout is on fire going (11-29) .483 with 2 deep ones over the last 7 while Justin Upton has cranked out 4 HR over that same span.
Something else to add regarding the May 10th MLB free pick involves Berrios. Yes, he started off the season with 3 shutout performances in his first 4 starts. In all his four other starts in 2018, he’s allowed 4+ runs however. This includes 13 ER allowed in his last 13.0 IP. Can the right hander with so much potential get back on track in a late game in Anaheim? You wouldn’t think so.
May 10th MLB Free Pick Betting
There’s heavy action on the Angels tonight at 65% and as long as that isn’t a trap it means Los Angeles should put some runs on the board. Richards has been solid as of late, but Minnesota can get on base against RH pitchers with a .342 wOBA. 7.5 isn’t a lot of runs, especially the way Trout, Upton, and Escobar have all been hitting the ball for their respective teams.
Free Pick: Minnesota Twins / Los Angeles Angels ‘Over’ 7.5