You really can’t get more teams that are evenly matched heading into the September 3rd Dodgers at Giants matchup. These squads are tied atop the NL West, tied for the best record in MLB at 85-49, and have split the 16 game regular season series 8-8 so far.
Usually San Francisco at +100 in what seems like a game that could go either way would have some solid value. The Dodgers (-121) are just on an absolute tear right now though, going 16-3 over their last 19 games which includes a 10-1 record in their last 11 road tilts. The public is sure to be backing L.A, but is it the correct play?
Dodgers Looking For Another Statement
L.A is starting to flex their muscles as the defending champs, going on an incredible tear over the past month going an incredible 22-6 in August. The Dodgers finally climbed back into 1st place over the past week, but it was short lived as the Giants pulled back into a tie with Thursday’s win as L.A sat idle.
The September 3rd Dodgers at Giants line looks low (LAD -121) as L.A has been out to make a statement lately. They demoralized the Padres in a sweep on the road, and just took all three against the first place Braves in series’ over the last 10 days.
One major reason San Francisco may be the play in Friday night’s series opener is because Dodgers pitcher David Price 4-2, 3.88 ERA hasn’t gotten a win since July 4th. That victory came in a relief role, as the left-hander hasn’t gotten a W as a starter in over two years. San Fran should probably get Curt Casali into the lineup here, as he’s 7 for 18 (.389) with 3 HRs vs. Price.
Giants Will Need Some Offense
Friday night’s run total is just 8.5, but that seems on the low side both because Price has a likely ceiling of 5 IP, and due to San Fran starter Anthony Desclafani absolutely getting worked by L.A this season.
It doesn’t make matters any better that Desclafani is on the injury list as he makes his way back from ankle inflammation. The right-hander gave up 2 HR over just 3.0 IP in his first start back from the IL, and has also allowed 22 ER in 21 IP in five starts against the Dodgers this season. Amazingly enough the Giants are 2-3 in those games.
The Dodgers are hitting .328 as a team over their careers vs. Desclafani, with Will Smith going 6 for 10 with 2HR and a triple. Max Muncy is 5 for 16 (.312) with 2 HR vs. the SF starter and Corey Seager is 3 for 6 with a bomb. 9 of the 12 Dodgers batters who have faced Desclafani in their careers are hitting better than .300.
September 3rd Dodgers at Giants Pick
It seems like the easy route to take, and the price seems a bit on the low side – but the Dodgers are the play in this one. Desclafani has pitched batting practice to Los Angeles over five starts this season. Price can give up his share of runs too, so double back with an over bet on this one.
Dodgers 7 – Giants 4
Free Pick: Over 8.5
Free Pick: Dodgers -121