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MLB Friday June 11th Padres at Mets Betting Preview

Slumping Padres Travel East to Face deGrom

Things don’t get any easier for San Diego coming into the June 11th Padres at Mets matchup. Jayce Tingler’s team has dropped 4 of their last 5 (all at home) and now have to visit the East Coast for a matchup with New York and Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62 ERA), who has the lowest ERA through 9 starts in MLB history.

The Mets sit atop the NL East, and have some value as -156 favorites with their ace on the mound San Diego counters with Blake Snell (2-2, 4.83) though, and he started vs. New York last Friday going 7.0 IP while giving up just 1 hit and striking out 10. The Padres are +143 – pull the trigger on the underdogs or back a Mets team that has been great at home this season with a 15-5 record at Citi Field?

Road Trip to Doom Padres?

Maybe what San Diego needs is a road trip after just wrapping up a disappointing 3-4 home stand. That includes losing the last two to the Cubs 7-1 and 3-1, as well as a split of a 4-game series with these Mets. The highly touted Padres offense has now scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 games.

One of those low scoring affairs for the Padres came on June 5th against Friday’s pitcher deGrom. The Mets starter went 7.0 IP while allowing just 3 hits and striking out 11. Manny Machado was 0-4 with 3 K’s in that contest, but usually hits deGrom fairly decent now going 6-18 in his career vs. the former Cy Young winner. Victor Caratini is also 4-12 (.333) with 2 HR vs. deGrom.

There likely won’t be a ton of scoring in the June 11th Padres at Mets matchup and the run total is a microscopic 5.5. Not only will deGrom probably dominate, but Snell is coming off his best start as a member of San Diego against these Mets last time out. The lefty only got out of the 6th once in his first 9 starts of the year, but tossed 7.0 innings of 1-hit ball last Friday. Has he turned the corner or was that a fluke?

Never Hurts to Back deGrom

We’re witnessing something special even by Jacob deGrom’s standards, as the Mets pitcher has allowed a total of 4 earned runs all season. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than 3 hits in his last 7 starts, and comes into Friday’s matchup off back to back outings with 0 ER given up.

The Mets offense looked good last time out, destroying Baltimore 14-1 on Wednesday powered by multi-HR games from Billy McKinney and Kevin Pillar. Pete Alonso also cracked his 9th HR of the season in the win at the Orioles, which was New York’s 3rd victory in the last four games.

New York also returns to Citi Field for the first time in June, just wrapping up a 5-4 road trip. 18 of the Mets last 22 games have been on the road and the team still has a 3.5 game lead in the East. This could be a very underrated squad that has won 8 of their last 9 as home favorites, and Thursday’s off day definitely helps recharge things a bit.

Free June 11th Padres at Mets Matchup

deGrom and the Mets are at home against Snell, who is still unproven even after a solid outing last time out. The -156 price still has good value here.
Mets 4 – Padres 1 

Free Pick: Mets -156

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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