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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Free ‘Total’ Play

Oddsmakers have dropped the number from 42 to 40.5 for Saturday night's game

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in the penultimate game of the 2017 regular season. The Vikings (11-3) of course have some bigger goals for the season after wrapping up the NFC North title. The Vikes want to be the first team to host a game in February, the location of this year’s Super Bowl. This 12/23 NFL free pick is famously without Aaron Rodgers, who has been shut down for the season after the Packers were eliminated from playoff contention last week in a defeat in Carolina.

Minnesota is a +9 favorite for this game as they need the win in an effort to catch Philadelphia for home field throughout the NFC playoffs. That’s an important factor to note, even though the 12/23 NFL free pick is a total play of the 40.5 number. Brett Hundley is back under center for the Pack – does he put up the points in front of a Saturday night Green Bay crowd that has roughly 13 hours worth of egg nog running through their blood?

Does the Minnesota Defense Equal ‘Under’ 40.5 as the Play

12/23 NFL free pick
Hundley will try to find some consistency against this Vikings defense. Definitely easier said than done.

Case Keenum has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this season, completing 67.9% of his passes with 20 TD to just 7 INT. Keenum has the Minnesota offense clicking, but at the same time with that defense an ‘under’ is always in play for the 12/23 NFL free pick. In wins over the Rams, Falcons, and Bengals in the last month, the Vikings gave up just 23 points combined. Minnesota is #2 in total yards allowed, rushing yards given up, and points surrendered while ranking 3rd in opponents pass yards. They’re good.

So where does Green Bay contribute to a possible under? They’ve got Brett Hundley back at quarterback after giving Aaron Rodgers the nod a week ago. You might think that Hundley under center could lead to fewer points, but he does have 3+ TD passes in two of his last four starts. The other two though – 0 TD and 4 INT. When Hundley replaced the injured Rodgers against Minnesota in the first matchup of the season, he was 18/33 with 1TD to 3 INT.

40.5 Isn’t a Lot of Points Between These Two Teams – Go Over?

That first head-to-head game of the season ended in a 23-10 Vikings home win, as +3 dogs. The loss of Rodgers undoubtedly hurt, but either way the total went well under the ’46’ listed. Game time temps in Green Bay are expected to be 14 degrees, another reason (in addition to the Minnesota defense) that the 12/23 NFL free pick total is so low. Sure Minnesota has a great defense, but they also rank #8 in total yards, 9th in both passing and rushing, and 10th in scoring. Along those same lines, the Packers have scored 23+ in five of six games despite ranking 23rd in the NFL in total yards.

12/23 NFL Free Pick Betting

The biggest tale of the tape on which side the total will fall is Brett Hundley against the Vikings defense. If Hundley plays well, that means the Packers are moving the ball scoring points. If the quarterback falters, it’s likely because the Vikings defense is harassing him into turnovers meaning a short field for the Minnesota offense. Totals have gone ‘over’ four times in the last five Minnesota road games, as well as in the last six games the Packers have played in December. You can’t overlook how let down Green Bay will play after falling out of the playoff race last week their first time missing the postseason in nine years. A complacent GB defense means a lot of scoring.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings / Green Bay Packers ‘Over’ 40.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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