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NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Early Sunday Night Football Spread and Over/Under Picks

The cold as ice Green Bay Packers (5-5 Overall, 2-2 Away) are playing the hot as molten iron Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2 Overall, 3-1 Home) tonight at 8:30 p.m. E.T. This could be a prime pick for anyone looking for a smart money opportunity. Our Green Bay plays Pittsburgh NFL Sunday Night pick has the Steelers at -13.5 and the over/under at 43.5. Coming into this game the Rodgers-less Packers are 1-4 for their last five, which includes a 23-0 drubbing by the Baltimore Ravens last week. Pittsburgh, which has won five straight, took down the Tennessee Titans last week 40-17.

Green Bay Overall

The Packers come into this game averaging 20.4 PPG. But since Brett Hundley took over for the injured Aaron Rodgers, they are scoring on average 12.0 PPG. Last week a very good defense shut them out, and once again this week, they are going up against a fine D, which is allowing less than 17 PPG. Hundley is completing 60.8% of his passes and has tossed only two TDs while putting up seven picks. The Packers are also hampered when it comes to the ground game as Aaron Jones, their leading rusher, is out, and Ty Montgomery, their second-man in-line, is doubtful. Perhaps their top receiver, Devante Adams, can make something happen today, or maybe the elusive Jordy Nelson can break out? To do so, Hundley will have to be on target.

The Packers defense is allowing 23.0 PPG. They have posted a healthy 51 TFL, while forcing eight fumbles and recovering seven. Of their seven picks, CB Damarious Randall has three along with four PD. Of their 21 sacks, LB Nick Perry, who is questionable for today’s game, has seven. The defense is okay, but there’s nothing special here, and we expect them to be on the field a lot tonight.

Packers Summary

  • QB situation is dire
  • RB injuries really hurt
  • Last five games scoring 12 PPG

Pittsburgh Overall

The Steelers come into this game with very good pass and ground attacks, an offense that is averaging 22.7 PPG, and a defense that is holding teams to 16.5 PPG. In their last five games, they scoring close to 26 PPG and no team has scored more than 17 points against them. RB Le’Veon Bell, who has five TDs on the season but not one at home as of yet, is averaging 3.8 YPA, while RB James Conner, who has just 24 carries, has been good for 4.7 YPA. QB Ben Roethlisberger’s completion rate of 61.8% is not stellar, but it’s been good enough, as he’s thrown 16 TDs and offered up 10 interceptions. Five different receivers have caught at least one TD pass, as Antonio Brown leads all receivers with 70 catches, 1,026 total yards, and six TDs. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has 33 catches, is averaging 17.2 YPC. He has five receptions for scores. The Steelers have allowed just 14 sacks. That is the second-fewest in the NFL.

The Steeler D has recorded 34 sacks, which is second most in the league. Their dozen INTs ties them for fifth in the league. LB Ryan Shazier, the lynchpin for this defense, leads the team with 70 tackles, three INTs, 10 PD and two FF. LB Vince Williams is second in tackles with 54 and sacks with six. DE Cameron Heyward tops the club with seven sacks. The Pittsburgh defense also has 49 PD and 38 TFL.

Steelers Summary

  • Solid rush and air attacks
  • Defense offers fine pass rush
  • Bell could break out today

Three Major Takeaways

Here are three top takeaways for our Green Bay plays Pittsburgh NFL Sunday Night pick-

  1. Packer offense struggling in every way
  2. Pittsburgh is sound on both sides of the ball
  3. QB, RB, WR and D edges all to Steelers

Packers at Steelers Picks- Pittsburgh’s Performances

Here are a few other points to ponder. The Packers are 1-4 versus the spread since Rodgers went down. Pittsburgh has won nine straight primetime games and covered in the last half-dozen. Our Green Bay plays Pittsburgh NFL Sunday Night pick is the Steelers at -13.5. We also like the under at 43.5.

Note- spread and totals may be updated, as the spread continues to be lowered on this game, starting at 13.5, going to 14.0 and 14.5, and now lowering down to 14.0 and then 13.5. We do like the Steelers at -13.5.

Free Point Spread and Over/Under Pick Summary- Pittsburgh at -13.5 and under 43.5


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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