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World Cup 2018 Pick: Germany Versus Mexico

Can Mexico Give Germany a Game?

In our Germany plays Mexico 2018 World Cup pick, the DFB Eleven are favored over El Tri and at -222 with the moneyline. Mexico is listed at +655 and the draw is offered at +365. The best odds on the spread have the German team at -1.25 (-111) and Mexico at +1.0 (+130). The over/under, which is 2.5, has the over at -111 and the under at +120. This is the first game for both clubs, which are in group F. They play at 11:00 a.m. E.T.

Germany, the returning champ, is considered to be one of the top contenders in this tournament. The other huge game today has Brazil, which is a slight favorite over the DFB Eleven to win at all, playing Switzerland at 2:00 p.m. E.T. Those teams, who are playing their first game in the 2018 World Cup, are in Group E.

Players to Watch

Die Mannschaft certainly comes to the pitch today with solid scoring power. We also expect them to be cautiously optimistic. After all, they did have a perfect qualifying record. But, at the same time, since qualifying they have won just a single game over the course of six friendlies. That was a 2-1 win versus Saudi Arabia. El Tri has reached the round of 16 at each of the last six World Cups. They have a fairly speedy squad that could help them off the break against this German team.


Mexico could end up focusing on Germany’s Timo Werner, which could open up the field to Thomas Muller. Muller, a midfielder, won the Golden Boot in the 2010 World Cup and netted five goals in 2014. In qualifying, he was stellar. Muller has more assists (6) and goals (10) at the World Cup any other active player.

Speaking of Werner, look for him to be this team’s primary striker. Many expect him to be a major contributor in this game. He could be a Golden Boot contender in this tournament.


For El Tri, Carlos Vela, who is 29, will be danger at forward. He’s fast, skilled, and creative. Vela could score at any time and will occupy the German defense.

Striker Javier Hernandez, who has 49 goals for Mexico, which is more than any other player on the team, is smart and speedy. He should have some quality chances today.

What We Expect

Coach Joachim Loew needs to make sure that his team is ready to go. We think they will be despite their recent performances in preliminary friendlies. Germany should come out quickly and press hard. They will want to score early. Werner and Muller will keep Mexico on its toes and possibly back on their heels.

Mexico’s coach Juan Carlos Osorio has to motivate his team to attack more aggressively and to score. If they can be quick off the break and create some opportunistic chances, they could give Germany a game. However, this is a team that has had a tough time scoring over the last half-dozen games or so. How is Osorio going to have his team play this match? He’s said and revealed little, as he most likely wants the advantage of surprise in this game.

Our Germany Plays Mexico 2018 World Cup Pick

Mexico has not lost in its last five World Cup opening games. Its last defeat was 1-0 by Norway in 1994. However, among the eight teams that have qualified for the World Cup at least 14 times, El Tri is the only one that has yet to win the whole thing. They have struggled to get past the second round.

Mexico has only won one of its 11 games against Germany. That was in June 1985 in Mexico City. Germany destroyed this team in last year’s Confederations Cup 4-1. In three World Cup matches against Mexico, the Germans are 2-0-1. DFB Eleven has made it to at least the semi-finals in the World Cup each of the last four times.

Our Germany plays Mexico 2018 World Cup pick is Die Mannschaft at -1.25 (-111). We also like over 2.5 at -111

Summary Germany Versus Mexico Picks: Germany at -1.25 (-111) and over 2.5 (-111)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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