Kansas City has had a “down year” according to most of sports media, but at 9-5 Andy Reid’s club can still claim their 8th straight AFC West crown with a win or a tie in the week 16 Raiders at Chiefs betting matchup. Las Vegas has lost 10 of 11 in this series, but will the circumstances of playing on Christmas Day open things up for a Raiders upset?
The Chiefs have lost three of their last five but are still -10.5 favorites for this Monday afternoon matchup (1:30 PM ET, CBS). Kansas City’s success over Las Vegas recently hasn’t been just winning, it’s been dominating with an average margin of victory over the last five meetings is 19.8 ppg. Despite that futility, a slight 51% of public bettors are on the Raiders.
Why the Raiders Have Value at +10.5
Las Vegas has two things going for them on Monday – a) extra rest from playing last Thursday and b) momentum after putting up a franchise record 63 points last time out against the Chargers. The Raiders showed nice depth vs. Los Angeles, with 8 different players scoring a TD.
You have to take the quality of opponent into account, but Las Vegas QB Aidan O’Connell was on fire last Thursday throwing for 248 yards and 4 TDs. Davante Adams had 12 targets so he should be a bit happier as Las Vegas tries to get their first win over K.C. since October of 2020.
If the Raiders could close they’d have already snapped their losing streak against the Chiefs, getting out to a 14-0 lead in week 12 but being outscored 31-3 the rest of the game in a 31-17 loss. Las Vegas did run for 123 yards in that game and O’Connell was solid going 23/33 for 248 yards so those are positives to build on.
Why the Chiefs Have Value at -10.5
Kansas City covered a -9.5 spread on the road in Las Vegas in week 12, so what’s one more point at home? Chiefs players got to see their families on Christmas Day playing at home, and there’s a real chance the Raiders are checked out mentally having to spend the holiday on the road.
The Chiefs are just 3-3 at home this season, but they also have to be a bit reenergized coming back to Arrowhead Stadium after playing three of the last four at home. K.C. can claim the AFC West yet again with a win, and they’d get to do it in front of their own fans on Christmas.
Patrick Mahomes was 27/34 for 298 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Las Vegas, so he’s comfortable matching up with this Raiders defense. Mahomes has led the Chiefs to 31+ points in eight straight games vs Las Vegas.
Free Week 16 Raiders vs Chiefs Betting
The Chiefs are getting 30+ here, it’s just what Mahomes does against the Raiders. That means a Las Vegas team that put up 60+ last week and has had a couple extra days to prepare just needs to account for 10 for this game to go over the total. Kansas City will probably cover the number, but this game accounting for more than 40.5 points seems like the best play.
Free Pick: Over 40.5