At first glance Milwaukee may seem like a somewhat surprising -170 favorite heading into September 11th Cubs at Brewers betting. Chicago is in first place in the NL Central and with an above .500, 10-7 record on the road this season. That being said, Milwaukee has won 7 of the last 10 head to head meetings and six of the last eight between the teams at Miller Park.
The Brewers and Cubs last met up in mid-August with Milwaukee taking the last three of a four game series at Wrigley Field. Friday’s Chicago starter Jon Lester (2-2, 5.80 ERA) was on the mound for the finale of the last series, allowing 5 ER in 6.0 IP. The Brewers go with Brandon Woodruff in this weekend’s series opener, a pitcher who hasn’t gotten out of the fifth inning in five of his last six starts. The betting total looks on the low side at 9 runs.
Can Cubs Give Lester Enough Run Support?
It’s looking like the days of Jon Lester battling out a 1-0 pitcher’s duel victory may be over. The veteran left-hander has given up five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. Over that span he has an outing on August 21st in which the White Sox belted out 4 HR and Lester managed just 3.1 IP in his last start on Sunday vs. St. Louis.
There have been flashes of former greatness for Lester ahead of September 11th Cubs at Brewers betting as evidenced by an August 26th start against the Tigers in which the lefty allowed just 1 ER. Detroit still belted out 8 hits though and Lester pitched just 5.0 IP.
The Cubs best chance for a win on Friday is to win in a high scoring affair. Chicago has seen Milwaukee starter Woodruff twice this year, tallying 2 ER in 5.0 IP on July 24th and 3 ER in 4.1 IP on August 14th. Chicago as a team has hit just 1 HR in 77 total AB vs. the Milwaukee starter.
Brewers In a Good Spot
Milwaukee is just happy to be facing Chicago at home after the first seven games of the series this year have been held in the Windy City. The days of Miller Park being called “Wrigley North” are over for 2020 with no fans in attendance. Even with a strong road contingency of fans, the Cubs have lost six of the last eight in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee sits five games back from the Cubs in the Central and two games behind St. Louis for 2nd place. The Brewers are three games under .500 at 19-22 and their playoff probability is just 48% so a strong showing this weekend is critical. Milwaukee torched Lester for 9 hits and 5 runs back in August despite the fact that the Cubs jumped out to a 3-0 first inning lead.
The big question for the Brewers is how many runs Woodruff (or the bullpen) needs on Friday night. Chicago has been held to 3 runs or less in six of their last 10 but Woodruff has allowed 7 ER total in his last two starts (9.1 IP). Woodruff hasn’t faced Chicago this season but allowed 4 runs in 4.0 innings the only time facing the Cubs last year.
September 11th Cubs at Brewers Betting Free Pick
Milwaukee looks like a great play here with their success against the Cubs last series at Wrigley and at Miller Park overall last season. Lester isn’t right either but David Ross has no choice but to stick with him with injuries to Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood as well as the hope that the veteran does find his stuff before the postseason. Lester starts are just ‘throwaway games’ for the Cubs at this point though.
Brewers 7 Cubs 4
Free Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+115)
Free Pick: Over 9