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ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball 4th of July Free Pick

After the Fireworks are Over, Settle In for Cardinals at Diamondbacks

The Cardinals post season dreams are slipping away fast and they actually might already be out of grasp. To be fair, St. Louis is just 7 GB in the NL Central but that seems like a two team race between the Brewers and Cubs, especially considering the Cards have dropped 5 of 6. The D’Backs on the other hand sit atop the NL West but would love to add to their 1.5 game lead with a win in the July 4th NL free pick – the rubber match of the series.

Can St. Louis Get It Going Against a Left Handed Pitcher?

July 4th NL free pick
Yadier Molina had a HR Monday and will look to get the Cardinals offense going again tonight.

Oddsmakers have set the July 4th NL free pick line at ARI -128 which seems a bit on the low side considering the Diamondbacks send Patrick Corbin to the hill. As a whole the Cardinals offense hasn’t exactly been tearing it up lately, scoring 2ER or less in 3 of the last 6. Against left-handers however those numbers are even worse. The Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 against a southpaw and 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a LH pitcher. Yadier Molina is the only Cardinals everyday player hitting above .301 over the past 7 days but he’s 1-8 in his career against tonight’s Arizona starter. Jedd Gyorko has had the most success against Corbin going 5-14 (.386) in his career.

Something going for St. Louis tonight is that they send what has been their best pitcher to the hill in Miles Mikolas (8-3, 2.61 ERA). The Cards are 4-1 in Mikolas’ last 5 road starts and the right hander has allowed 2ER or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. The right hander doesn’t have much experience against Arizona, as only Paul Goldschmidt and Jon Jay have ever faced the Cardinals hurler.

Arizona Aims for the Series Win On Wednesday Night

July 4th NL free pick
Corbin has bounced back nicely in his past two starts.

The Diamondbacks are at home in the July 4th NL free pick, a place where they’re only 24-20 on the season. Things haven’t been great for Arizona at Chase Field lately either as they are 1-6 over their last 7 at home. The Diamondbacks were swept by San Francisco and lost the first game of this series before finally getting a 4-2 win last night. Despite their struggles, the Diamondbacks can definitely pull off the win tonight if not for the bat of Paul Goldschmidt alone. Over the last 3 games Goldschmidt has 2HR, 6 RBI, and has 7 hits in 11 AB. Nick Ahmed, Jarrod Dyson, and Ketel Marte are all hitting over .350 the past 7 days so it’s time for the D’Backs offense to produce.

Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.14 ERA) gets the call to try and limit the Cardinals offense on Wednesday night. He has bounced back from two 5ER allowed performances to surrender just 1 ER total in his last two starts (13 IP) including 17 K’s. Despite those numbers, Arizona is just 1-5 in Corbins last 6 home starts and have dropped 5 in a row when he pitches on 4 days rest.

July 4th NL Free Pick Betting

The biggest question heading into tonight’s game is if Mikolas can keep the Diamondbacks offense at bay while his own batters will likely struggle against a left hander. The under seems like a solid play in what is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel, but the number sits at just 7.5. Arizona is in the midst of a lengthy home stand and they know the importance of starting to play better at Chase Field. With a getaway day planned and a trip off to San Francisco on the horizon on 4th of July night, expect the Cardinals to want to get this game over with ASAP.

Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -128

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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