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College Basketball Pick: #16 Louisville Cardinals vs #2 Duke Blue Devils

Top-25 ACC Battle as Duke Visits Louisville

The #2 Duke Blue Devils (22-2 Overall, 9-1 ACC) visit the #16 Louisville Cardinals (17-7 Overall, 8-3 ACC) tonight for a 9:00 pm ET tipoff. Our Duke at Louisville basketball pick offers the Blue Devils at -8.0. Since they were surprised by Syracuse 95-91 in OT on January 14, Duke has won seven games in a row. From January 12 through January 30, the Cardinals reeled off six straight wins. However, in their last three games, Louisville is 1-2 having faced three top-25 teams. Their one win was over #11 Virginia Tech 72-64, while the Cards lost to #9 North Carolina 79-69 and #22 Florida State 8-75 in OT. Here’s our Duke at Louisville basketball pick for February 12.

Cards Outmatched in Scoring

Our Duke at Louisville basketball pick first notes that the Cardinals should be completely dominated by the Blue Devil offense. Duke is averaging 86.8 PPG to Louisville’s 78.6 PPG. However, the Cards dominate the Devils in two-of-three shooting categories. While Duke is sinking 48.9% of their field goals to Louisville’s 45.7% success rate, the Cardinals are better when it comes to three-point conversions (36,5%-to-32.0%) and free throw shooting (76.7%-to-67.7%).

When it comes to offensive rebounds, Duke is about +5 per game over Louisville. We expect that advantage to give the Devils more chances at putting in their bread-and-butter shot, the two-point field goal. We like Duke on offense.

Edge: Duke

Duke D Can Dominate

The Blue Devils defense is giving up 65.5 PPG, while the Cardinal D is allowing 65.5 PPG. Our Duke at Louisville basketball pick finds that the Devils are better on RPG (42.2-to-37.5), STPG (7.4-to-3.0) and BKPG (10.5-to-4.9). With this type of major advantage, you have to wonder if the Cardinals will get enough chances at shots, possessions, and second shots to be able to keep up with the Duke offense?

Edge: Duke

Five Keys to Blue Devils and Cardinals

  • Duke starting front three scoring about 60 PPG, Louisville’s good for 38 PPG
  • Blue Devil’s top three rebounders averaging 21 RPG, Cards 19.6
  • Duke guard Tre Jones top playmaker and defender
  • Louisville gets more from their bench
  • Cardinals at home a factor

Edge: Duke

Our Duke at Louisville basketball Pick

When push comes to shove, our Duke at Louisville basketball pick is the visiting Blue Devils at -8.0. Louisville has struggled with teams like Duke as of late and the Devils are on a major roll.

Summary NCAAM Duke at Louisville Pick: Duke at -8.0


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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