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NFL Pick: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

The second of two Christmas Day football games is our

Denver Broncos play Kansas City Chiefs free pick. This battle is between the AFC West’s second place team, the Chiefs, and the division ‘s third place team, the Broncos. Denver, last year’s Super Bowl champs, have very little to any hope of making the playoffs. If Kansas City wins this game, they are just about assured of an AFC wild card spot.

The Denver Broncos (6-8) are coming off of a loss last week to the New England Patriots. The final score in that game was 16-3, Denver has lost three of its last five, The Chiefs lost last week to the Titans 19-17. They are 3-2 for their last five games.

Denver Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

The fact is Denver QB Trevor Siemian (61.3 COMP%, 16 TDs, 8 INTs, 31 Sacks) has played pretty well this season. Still, Denver is averaging 21.4 PPG. The Broncos are primarily a passing team. WRs Demaryius Thomas (83 REC, 1016 YDs, 12.2 AVG, 5 TDs) and Emmanuel Sanders (78 REC, 1006 YDs, 12.9 AVG, 5 TDs) are Siemian’s top targets. The rush attack is less of a factor for this team. With RM C.J. Anderson out, Devontae Booker (3.6 AVG, 2 TDs) is the team’s top rusher. One problem for Siemian and the Denver offense is the fact that the frontline has allowed 40 sacks, and the Broncos have had 16 fumbles forced.

The Chiefs are allowing just 19.6 PPG. They bring a fairly low number of sacks, 26, to this game. Kansas City has forced 16 fumbles and recovered three. They’ve also intercepted 15 passes and defended 86 air balls. DB Marcus Peters is an awesome talent; he has five picks and 17 PD. LB Dee Ford leads the team in sacks with 10.

Kansas City Offense vs. Broncos Defense

The Chiefs are scoring on average 22.8 PPG. QB Alex Smith (66.4 COMP%, 12 TDs, 6 INTs, 27 Sacks) has tossed six TD passes to Tyreek Hill and has hit WR Travis Kelce three times for scores. RB Spencer Ware (201 ATT, 859 YDs, 4.3 AVG, 3 TDs) has been solid in the ground game.

The Broncos have 40 sacks. That’s their best D stat, but it also matches how many sacks they’ve allowed. The secondary has 12 INTs and 73 PD. They have forced a dozen fumbles. LBs Von Miller (13.5 Sacks, 2 TFL, 2 FF)) and Shane Ray (7 Sacks, 2 TFL) are uncompromising in their pursuit of QBs. CB Aqib Talib (12 PD, 3 INTs) is a money player. They are holding opponents to 18.4 PPG.

Denver Broncos Play Kansas City Chiefs Free Pick

The Chiefs won 30-27 when these two teams met about a month ago. They are listed at -3.5. Denver will probably keep this game close. Still, we advise you take the Chiefs at -3.5. That’s our Denver Broncos play Kansas City Chiefs free pick.

Denver Broncos Play Kansas City Chiefs Free Pick: Kansa City at -3.5


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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