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NCAA Tournament 2021 – #3 Arkansas Razorbacks (25-6) vs #1 Baylor Bears (25-2)

Baylor's Gunners Can Seal Deal

Our Arkansas vs Baylor pick offers the Bears as the favorite team. The best point spread for the Bears is -7.5 (-109). You’ll find the underdog Razorbacks at +8.0 (-115). Arkansas has gotten to this 2021 NCAAM Tournament Elite 8 South Region game by initially hammering the #13 Colgate Raiders 85-68 and then by barely getting by the #6 Texas Tech Red 68-66. In the Sweet 16, they snuck by the #15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles 72-70. In the Round of 64, the Baylor Bears easily defeated the #16 Hartford Hawks 79-55, and in the round of 32, they beat the #9 Wisconsin Badgers by 13 points. The score in that game was 76-63. In the Sweet 16, the Bears beat the #5 Villanova Wildcats 62-51.

The Razorbacks and Bears will meet on Monday, March 29 at 9:57 pm ET. The game will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. Also, see our Midwest Region Elite 8 pick for Monday as the #12 Oregon State Beavers take on the #2 Houston Cougars at 7:15 pm ET. That game will also be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN

Arkansas vs Baylor Pick – Stats

Both of these teams can score. The Razorbacks are averaging 81.7 PPG, while the Bears are scoring 83.0 PPG. Arkansas is grabbing 39.9 RPG, while Baylor is taking down 36.3 RPG. Arkansas is also better on blocks, 4.9 to 3.7. Baylor outpaces the Razorbacks in field=goal percentage (48.6% to 45.0%), assists (16.6 to 14.6), and steals (9.0-7.9). Arkansas is better on free throws, 73.7% to 69.7%, while the Bears excel at threes. Holding a clear 41.8% to 33.9%.

Key Players

In this Elite 8 game, we expect the Razorbacks will rely heavily on guards Moses Moody, JD Notae, and Jalen Tate as well as forward Justin Smith. Each is a double-digit scorer. Moody leads the team with 17.0 PPG. He’s also grabbing 5.8 RPG. Notae is good for 12.8 PPG while Tate is scoring 10.9 PPG while averaging 3.9 APG and 3.8 RPG. Smith is scoring 13.8 PPG and grabbing 7.3 RPG.

Baylor has five guards who possess a three-point success-rate of 39% or better. Included in the group is Jared Butler, who’s scoring 16.6 PPG and making 4.7 APG, and Davion Mitchell, who is averaging 14.1 PPG and dishing off 5.3 APG. Mitchell is completing 52.2% of his field-goal attempts. MaCio Teague is recording 15.7 PPG and grabbing 4.1 RPG. In front, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is good for 6.2 PPG and 5.0 RPG.

Arkansas vs Baylor Pick – Final Thoughts

Our Arkansas vs Baylor pick notes that up to this point no team has kept up with the Bears. The Razorbacks are a fine team, but we do think that Baylor will overpower them, beating them by at least 10 points. The Bears are exceptionally deep at guard. We are taking the Baylor Bears at -7.5 (-109).

#12 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #2 Baylor Bears

Baylor Bears at -7.5 (-109)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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