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ALCS Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 5 Betting Preview

Texas Letting Series Slip Away Back Home

When you’ve been to the ALCS seven straight seasons, it takes a lot to rattle a team. That’s what Houston has shown heading into the Astros vs Texas Rangers game 5 betting matchup, once down 0-2 and now battling back to a 2-2 series tie.

Texas was in the driver’s seat after taking the first two games on the road at Minute Maid Park, but now all the pressure is on the Rangers as they’ve let that big early series lead completely get away from them back at home. Oddsmakers still like Texas as very slight -110 favorites (HOU -105) but 68% of the betting public likes the Astros to take a 3-2 advantage going back home for games 6 and 7.

Why the Astros Have Value On Friday

Dating back to a three game sweep of the Rangers in Arlington in early September, the Astros have now outscored the Rangers 57-18 in their last five contests at Globe Life Field. Houston is averaging 11.4 runs/game over that span and after scoring just 4 combined runs the first two meetings at Minute Maid Park in the ALCS, the Astros have now doubled that in each of the last two games in an 8-5 and a 10-3 victory.

The Houston bats may have a hard time getting going against Texas starter Jordan Montgomery in the Astros vs Texas Rangers game 5 betting matchup as the left-hander hasn’t allowed a run in two of his three starts this postseason. That being said Montgomery did give up 4 ER over just 4.0 IP in the ALDS against Baltimore, but was bailed out by his offense in an 11-8 Rangers victory.

Justin Verlander is up in the rotation for the Astros. He pitched into the 7th in Game 1 allowing 2 ER over 6.2 IP, but got absolutely zero run support in the 2-0 defeat. Verlander pitched against Texas in Arlington on September 6th and gave up just 1 ER over 7.0 IP.

Why the Rangers Have Value on Friday

Maybe Texas just needs to play with a chip on their shoulder? They were +133 and +142 underdogs in Tampa before knocking out the Rays in two games in the wild card round and then won both games in Baltimore against the 100+ win Orioles. The Rangers saw themselves as +123 and +111 ‘dogs in the first two of the ALCS and came out victorious in both games at Minute Maid Park.

The Rangers had played just one home game during their 7-0 start to the 2023 playoffs, so maybe they’ve been humbled a bit by losing the last two to Houston. It will be tough to get the offense going against Verlander, but Marcus Semien is hitting .304 (14/46) against the Houston starter and Leody Taveras 3-6 with a HR and a 3B.

Montgomery will try to contain the Astros bats on Friday even though Houston apparently sees the ball well at Globe Life Field. The Texas starter held the Rays scoreless over 7.0 IP in the wild card round and also shut out this Houston squad over 6.1 IP in Game 1.

Free Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 5 Betting Pick

It’s hard to go against the success that Houston has had recently at Globe Life Field. There’s a big contingency of Astros fans that were loud and proud in Game 4, and there is also some unknown about Montgomery making his first home start of the postseason. The value seems to be on Houston here.

Free Pick: Astros -105

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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