Taking the points looks like the play heading into the AFC wild card Ravens at Titans pick. All three underdogs covered the early numbers in Saturday’s games, and Baltimore gets +3.5 points heading into Tennessee. The Ravens won five straight down the stretch.
Of course Tennessee is no slouch either, especially this time of year as evidenced by the Titans getting hot last season en route to the AFC Championship game. Tennessee rolled through New England (20-13) and these Ravens (28-12) before falling to eventual champion Kansas City. The Titans won three of four to wind down the regular season this year. The betting total for this one is 54.
Will Baltimore’s Playoff Struggles Continue?
The Ravens turned things on over the past five weeks, getting their offense to click for 34+ in four of their five wins. Fans want the team to prove it when it counts though, as Baltimore has been one and done in each of the last two seasons in the playoffs, including falling at home in the divisional round to Tennessee after a 14-2 regular season.
We know the Titans can run the ball, but it’s actually Baltimore that has the top ground attack in the league coming into the AFC wild card Ravens at Titans pick (191.9). That ground game was punishing last week, compiling 404 yards on 54 carries vs. the Bengals. Tennessee is nothing better than mediocre vs. the run, as their 120.9 ypg allowed is 19th in the NFL.
Of course one aspect of having the best running game in the NFL is that Baltimore is very one-dimensional, throwing for a league fewest 171.2 ypg. Lamar Jackson looks like he’s playing with confidence with a couple 3+ TD games over his last three, but those also came against Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Jackson has 3 TD to 3 INT in his two career playoff games, with a 51.1% completion percentage.
Tennessee Too Versatile on Offense?
Derrick Henry is a man-beast running for over 2,000 yards on the season, but it’s the Titans ability to throw the ball that has them looking like a great play giving the -3.5. A.J. Brown has looked as dominant through the air as Henry has on the ground, going for 1,075 while catching 12 TDs in just 14 games.
Ryan Tannehill also has an incredible command of Arthur Smith’s offensive game plan, throwing for a career best 33 TD to just 7 INT. Tannehill completed 77% or better of his passes in two of the final four games of the regular season, but did struggle with two INTs and a 45 QBR in week 16 at Green Bay.
The Ravens have a top 10 defense against both the run and the pass. These two teams met up in a 30-24 Titans win at Baltimore in week 11 when Tennessee was a +6 road underdog. Baltimore held Henry relatively in check (by his standards) with 133 yards on 28 carries, 29 of those yards came on the game winning scamper in OT however.
Free AFC Wild Card Ravens at Titans Pick
This one could go either way, and most are expecting it to be a physical slug fest. The Ravens have looked good down the stretch, but they’ve also played the Jaguars, Giants, and Ravens. Tennessee is a whole different punch in the mouth, but this still feels like a field goal game.
Titans 31 – Ravens 28
Free Pick: Baltimore +3.5