If Miami had held on to win the AFC East they’d be playing a home playoff game in balmy South Beach where forecasts were expected to be nearing 80 degrees this weekend. Instead it’s a road game for Mike McDaniel’s team and Dolphins at Chiefs totals betting is definitely not a vacation as they are headed to Kansas City were temperatures could reach as low as -20 with the wind chill.
The Chiefs are -4.5 favorites at home, but with the weather being the front and center topic of conversation it makes the total of 43.5 a very interesting wager. This game features some of the best offensive players in the NFL, but they’re also human and -20 is very, very, cold.
Why Under 43.5 Has Value
Cold weather aside, the 43.5 number might have been a bit high even in perfect conditions. While the Chiefs have predominantly been known for their offense over the success of the past 4-5 years, this year K.C. is winning games with the league’s #2 defense in total yards and points allowed and #4 unit vs the pass.
The Chiefs elite defense does have a challenge against the Miami offense, but the Dolphins are also banged up. WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, and RB Raheem Mostert are all battling ankle injuries and have missed practice time this week. On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes has made no secret how displeased he’s been with his receiving corps this year – a unit that leads the NFL in dropped passes.
Finally, you do have to take the weather into account when doing proper Dolphins at Chiefs totals betting handicapping. Wind chills could reach -30 degrees and the forecast is also calling for 20+ MPH winds as well as a chance of snow. Is it a stretch to say that putting 14 points on the board could win this game?
Why Over 43.5 Has Value
It’s no secret that it’s going to be cold in Kansas City on Saturday night, but has O/U really moved in conjunction with the weather? When you take into account the Chiefs defense, the Dolphins’ injuries, and the ice cold tundra of Arrowhead Stadium then a lower scoring game looks like the easy play – too easy.
While the Chiefs receiving corps has been much maligned this year, K.C. was still #9 in total yardage this season including #6 in their passing offense. A bitter cold game where defenses don’t want to hit seems like one where Travis Kelce could have a breakout and Mahomes just finds a way to win this time of year as he is 11-3 in the playoffs.
The Chiefs offense could have a big day just because of the injury situation on the Miami defense. They were already without their top two rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips prior to losing three more defensive players for the season last week against Buffalo.
Free Wild Card Dolphins at Chiefs Totals Betting Pick
Even though the public hates doing it – especially in the playoffs – the popular play on Saturday night has to be on the under 43.5 just because the weather conditions have been so beaten into our psyche. Miami’s defense is too banged up so the Chiefs will get theirs, and you know McDaniel is going to have some tricks up his sleeve, especially as Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium.
Free Pick: Over 43.5