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College Football Pick: New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos

Mountain West Contest Could Be Explosive

The New Mexico Lobos (1-1) visit the Boise State Broncos (1-1) on Thursday, Sep 14 at 8 p.m. E.T. This is the first MWC game of 2017 for both teams. The Lobos won their opener against Abilene Christian 38-14 and then lost a close game to New Mexico State 28-30. In that contest trailing 30-5 at the end of the third quarter, the Lobos scored 23 points in the fourth to close the gap to two. Might that be an indication that they are ready to be competitive against Boise State? The Broncos won their first game of the 2017, beating Troy 23-14. They then played Washington State, taking them into overtime before losing 47-44. Our 2017 New Mexico plays Boise State college football pick has the Broncos favored by 14.0 and the over/under at 58.5.

New Mexico Offense vs. Broncos D

New Mexico State has been able to score points, averaging 33.0 per game thus far. One question is who will start at quarterback for the Lobos this week? Will it be senior Lamar Jordan or freshman Tevaka Tuioti? Tuioti led the Lobos to a nearly miraculous comeback last week against NMSU. He tossed two TDs and no INTs, completing 55.5 percent of his passes. Receivers to watch are Chris Davis Jr. (11 REC, 12.4 AVG, 1 TD) and Jay Griffin IV (7 REC, 18.7 AVG, 2 TDs). The ground game senior Daryl Chestnut (13 ATT, 8.3 AVG, 2 TD) and junior Tyrone Owens (17 CAR, 4.4 AVG, 1 TD). Chestnut is a massive offensive force. The offensive line is first rate.

The Bronco defensive front line is solid. Still, this is a D that has fairly talented but inexperienced linebackers and deep backs. Boise State has allowed an average of 30 PPG, and they could easily allow that many or more against New Mexico. Players who look to have an impact on defense include tackle-leader LB Leighton Vander Esch (23 TCKLS, 3 Sacks, 3 TFL, 1 INT) and safety Kekoa Nawahine (16 TCKLS, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT). Boise State has forced five fumbles this season and recovered two.

Boise State Offense vs. Lobos Defense

The Broncos field two QBs, senior Montell Cozart (62.1%, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and junior Brett Rypien (64.5%, 0 IDs, 1 INT). Thus far, Cozart has performed better and we expect to see him in this game. Senior WR Cedric Wilson (13 REC, 16.3 AVG, 2 TDs) is the team’s top receiver, while sophomore RB Alexander Mattison (27 ATT, 5.4 AVG, 2 TDs) anchors the running game. He’s capable of the big play. QB Cozart gives the team another weapon on the ground. He’s carried the ball 22 times, averaging 4.9 YPA and scoring once.

The Bronco offense is averaging 34.0 PPG, while the Lobo defense has allowed 22.0 PPG. Although the D has performed well, they are young and inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how they do against a powerful offensive team like the Broncos. Don’t expect a lot from the New Mexico frontline. However, their secondary has performed well with safety Jake Rothschiller leading the way with 14 tackles, one sack, one interception and three TFL. He’s also forced two of the team’s four fumbles. Safety Jacob Girgle has two passes defended and two picks.

2017 New Mexico Plays Boise State College Football Pick

We like the over on this game, as both teams have fine scoring potential while only one has been able to control opponent offenses. Also, we think the spread favors the Lobos. Our 2017 New Mexico plays Boise State college football pick is the over at 58.5 and New Mexico at +14.0.

2017 New Mexico Plays Boise State College Football Pick: Lobos at +14.0 and over at 58.5


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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