The New York Mets return home to Citi Field Tuesday night to begin a new series against the Milwaukee Brewers. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET. New York is trying to bounce back after getting swept by the Pirates over the weekend. Milwaukee comes in playing well and sits one game behind in the National League wild card race.
These teams met nine times last season, with Milwaukee winning seven. The Brewers won four of five games played in New York. Tuesday’s pitching matchup features Clay Holmes for the Mets and Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Both pitchers are tied for the league lead in wins and rank inside the top ten in ERA.
Mets Preview – New York Looking to Stop the Slide
The Mets have lost 13 of their last 16 games. Their most recent series in Pittsburgh was especially rough, giving up 30 runs while scoring only four. The sweep knocked them out of first place in the NL East. Team owner Steve Cohen responded with a public statement on social media urging fans to stay positive.
Clay Holmes will make the start. He is 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA in his first full season as a starter. He leads Mets pitchers in wins and ranks tenth in ERA across MLB. But against Milwaukee, he has struggled. Holmes owns a 6.64 ERA in 20.1 innings against the Brewers, with 22 walks and 19 hits allowed. In his last two starts, Holmes has walked 10 batters in under 10 innings total.
New York’s bullpen has been solid with a 3.56 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett, and Jose Butto have been steady late in games. The offense has been a major issue, especially with runners in scoring position, hitting just .217. The Mets are 29-12 at home but need better production to stay in the playoff hunt.
Brewers Preview – Milwaukee Rolling Into New York
The Brewers have won eight of their last ten games. They were one out away from sweeping Colorado on Sunday before losing 4-3 in 11 innings. Even with that loss, Milwaukee has scored 7.8 runs per game over its last 10. Brice Turang and Christian Yelich have long hitting streaks, both batting over .410 during those stretches.
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for his 17th start. He’s 8-4 with a 2.90 ERA and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five games. Against the Mets, Peralta is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three career starts. In his last outing, he gave up three runs over five innings against Pittsburgh and struck out eight.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA and allows just over four runs per game. The bullpen has been one of the best in baseball with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Nick Mears, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill have all been strong in late innings. The Brewers are 20-20 on the road and rank top five in ROI on the first five inning moneyline and run line when away from home.
Betting Prediction
The Mets are -130 favorites at home while the Brewers are listed at +110. The total is set at 8.0. Milwaukee has been profitable in many betting markets, including the first five innings and team total overs on the road. New York, despite the home record, has been cold and just gave up 30 runs in three games.
Freddy Peralta has the edge on the mound, especially with Holmes struggling to control the strike zone. The Mets bullpen has been overworked lately and the offense has gone cold. Milwaukee’s offense is hot and the pitching staff is more stable. This is a good spot to back the Brewers to win outright on the road.
Pick: Brewers +110
