Being a successful sports gambler takes many things, and understanding the difference between a team’s chances of winning versus the chances of that team winning in comparison to the betting odds on offer is the biggest key. Success in sports gambling is only earned by being able to continually find value wagers and then patiently betting on those value wagers. This skill coupled with a solid staking plan will make the most of those value wagers and allow you to win the wagers that not only pay out the best but the most. Regardless of how improbable any particular wager’s outcome may seem. It isn’t as difficult as it sounds either. Obviously, you want to pick winners, whether with or against the spread, however, understanding how the odds play into those spreads will allow you to see the value of the wagers.
Just think of all the times there has been a major upset and you think to yourself, who would have bet on that team? Well, shrewd experienced bettors would, and it can very easily be you too.
Understanding value betting and finding value wagers is the key to long term betting success. To an experienced bettor, it may, and should, come as second nature, but for someone new to betting, making the shift from sports fan to serious bettor with an understanding of betting value will take some time and practice. That said, simply realizing this to be the case is the first step.
It’s not easy betting hard earned money on a team that nobody thinks has a realistic chance to win. However, becoming a successful sports bettor requires just that. Finding value bets and consistently placing them, no matter how uneasy it may make you feel, is what makes a successful sports bettor.
It’s A Betting Market
Never forget that it’s a betting market. You’ll hear this phrase constantly amongst oddsmakers and professional sports gamblers. The push and pull of the general gambling public’s opinion is what sets the odds after all. Making this a habitual way of thinking is not only hard to do, but can at times reduce the sport you love so much, to a matter of mere economics. Remember, you’re not a sports gambler because you like sports, you’re a sports gambler to make money.
At times, you may wish you could just watch a football or baseball game and not wonder about how the outcome may impact the next game’s odds. Or even how the overwhelming number of casual sports gamblers might move the odds one way or another. When you are thinking like this, you’re headed in the right direction and once your head is wired this way, it’s hard to undo. It may ruin your notions of sport, but for understanding and identifying value betting, it’s a good thing.
You’ll find yourself wondering about the entire betting market of a game and not simply the game’s final result. Yes, you may have the winner, but knowing how everyone else is wagering and, therefore, changing the spread and the odds is even more important. Know the market.
Review Your Results
Just like anything else in sports gambling, this is a learned skill and the only way to refine that skill is to do your homework. You don’t know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been. The homework in developing a mindset and system for finding value is in reviewing how your previous wagers and how they have performed for you. What did you get it right? What did you get it wrong?
You can remedy this by reviewing your wagers at the conclusion of games, obviously.
However, it is important to go deeper than that as well. Know your sports and your leagues. How has your sport or league performed in recent years? For example, what is home-field advantage worth in real terms? Does the market over-value it? Does the market have a general and long-term bias for or against particular teams or players in any particular situations? All of this can help you locate value in your wagers. Never think you know it all and always be prepared to reassess. It’s this kind of study, review, and analysis that will keep you one step ahead of the market.
Like developing any kind of skill or talent, developing your ability to find value wagers will take time. Knowledge is power, and the greatest knowledge comes through experience. And experience worth anything is experience well earned. It’s like developing any kind of craft. Even if you intend to develop the most sophisticated betting models for predicting the probable outcomes every game or match in every sport, the development of an intuitive sense for value’ for the betting markets will often provide the basis for even such an ambitious approach. Remember, knowledge is power and the only way to attain said knowledge is via experience.