The Las Vegas Aces can clinch another WNBA championship when they meet the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the Finals on Friday night. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET inside Footprint Center in Phoenix. The Aces lead the best-of-seven series 3-0 and enter as 2.5-point road favorites with a total of 163.5 points.
Las Vegas grabbed control of the series after a thrilling 90-88 win in Game 3. A’ja Wilson delivered a game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds remaining, capping off a 34-point, 14-rebound performance. Phoenix rallied back from a 17-point deficit to tie it late, but the Aces’ experience showed down the stretch. The Mercury now face elimination, and they will do so shorthanded without forward Satou Sabally, who suffered a concussion in the final minutes of Game 3.
LV Preview – Wilson and Aces Eye Historic Three-Peat
Las Vegas is on the brink of history, seeking its third WNBA title in four years. The Aces have already joined rare company, but a win Friday would cement them as the first team since the Houston Comets (1997–2000) to capture three championships in a four-year span. Head coach Becky Hammon has turned this group into a modern dynasty built around dominance on both ends of the floor.
A’ja Wilson continues to lead the way. The league MVP is averaging 27.6 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game during the Finals. She has recorded three straight double-doubles and scored at least 30 points in two of the three contests. Wilson’s mid-range shot has been nearly automatic, and her defensive presence has kept Phoenix from getting easy looks in the paint. She is a near lock to win her second WNBA Finals MVP in three years.
Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have been steady contributors, combining for 29 points and 10 assists per game in the Finals. Young’s outside shooting has opened up driving lanes, while Gray’s playmaking continues to set the tone in the halfcourt. Kelsey Plum remains the x-factor, shooting 36% from three-point range and giving the Aces a spark in transition. Las Vegas has won six of its seven matchups against the Mercury this season, including all three games in Phoenix.
On defense, the Aces have forced Phoenix into long possessions and tough shots. They rank top-three in opponent field goal percentage and are holding opponents to just over 80 points per game this postseason. Wilson and Gray anchor a rotation that switches effectively and rebounds at a high rate, allowing few second-chance opportunities. The team’s ability to close games late has been unmatched, with the Aces winning by an average of 7.3 points in their last 10 postseason outings.
PHO Preview – Mercury Rely on Veterans to Stay Alive
The Mercury face elimination for the first time this postseason, and their challenge gets harder without Satou Sabally. The 6-foot-4 forward averaged 16.3 points and 6.7 rebounds during the regular season and was key to Phoenix’s frontcourt defense. Her absence puts pressure on veterans Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner to carry the load offensively and on the glass.
Bonner continues to play with intensity, posting 25 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3 while keeping the Mercury competitive in the fourth quarter. Thomas nearly recorded a triple-double with 14 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. Her physical defense on Las Vegas guards helped Phoenix rally late. However, depth remains a concern. The Mercury bench has been outscored by a combined 34 points through the first three games of the Finals, forcing the starters to play heavy minutes.
To have a chance in Game 4, Phoenix must find better scoring balance and take care of the ball. The Mercury are shooting just 43% from the floor in the Finals and have been outrebounded in each contest. Their three-point shooting will be critical after going 6-for-21 in Game 3. If Bonner and Thomas can get early help from Diana Taurasi or Natasha Cloud, Phoenix could stay within striking distance. Defensively, Phoenix needs to limit Wilson’s touches and prevent easy kick-outs to Young and Plum on the perimeter.
Despite their struggles, the Mercury have shown fight. They erased a 17-point deficit in Game 3 and have covered the spread in two of the last three meetings. Playing at home with the season on the line, expect Phoenix to play with urgency and emotion early. However, sustaining that intensity for four quarters against Las Vegas’s depth is the challenge.
Betting Prediction
The Aces are 24-3 in their last 27 games and continue to look like the league’s most complete team. They are 29-25-1 against the spread this season and 15-11 on the road. Their combination of star power, defense, and experience gives them a clear edge. With Wilson dominating the paint and Las Vegas controlling the pace, the Aces are well-positioned to close out the series and celebrate another championship.
Phoenix will play hard behind their home crowd, but missing Sabally’s rebounding and scoring hurts their chances of extending the series. Expect another competitive game early, but the Aces’ efficiency and composure should win out in the final minutes. The total has gone over in seven of the last ten meetings, and both teams are likely to score efficiently again. Predicted final score: Aces 88, Mercury 82.
Pick: Las Vegas Aces -2.5 and Over 163.5
