The Atlanta Dream visit the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET. Atlanta is 29-14 and first in the East. Connecticut is 11-32 and fifth in the East.
This is the second game of a home-and-home set. Atlanta won 87-62 on Monday in Georgia. The Dream have won five straight and are 3-1 against the Sun this season.
ATL Preview – Can the Hot Streak Travel Again?
Atlanta is 29-14 with a strong 27-15-1 record against the spread. The Dream are 13-8 away from home. They average 84.3 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
The offense is balanced and fast. Atlanta ranks third in 3-pointers made at 9.6 and second in attempts at 28.4. They shoot 33.7% from three and 44.1% from the field.
Ball movement and care show up in the numbers. The Dream are second in assists at 21.3 and second in turnovers at only 12.5. Their 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks third.
Rhyne Howard is in form. She put up 18 points, six assists, and five boards on Monday. On Friday, she tied the WNBA single-game record with nine made threes and scored 37.
Naz Hillmon added 14 points, four assists, and five boards in the last game. Aerial Powers and frontcourt depth help the glass as ATL ranks first in rebounds at 36.7. Atlanta has also started fast in games, ranking second in scoring in all four quarters.
First-year coach Karl Smesko just set the WNBA mark for most wins by a rookie head coach with 29. The group has clear roles. The Dream have covered two straight against the Sun and three of four meetings this season.
CON Preview – Can the Sun Slow the Second-Half Slide?
Connecticut is 11-32 and 7-14 at home. The Sun are 23-20 against the spread and 20-21-2 to the total. They have dropped four of their last five games.
The Sun scored 62 points on Monday and were outscored 42-19 after halftime. They allow 85.9 points per game, which ranks 11th. Opponents shoot 46.4% from the field and 34.8% from three against them.
Saniya Rivers led with 16 points in the last game and had 10 in the earlier meeting on Sept. 1. Tina Charles scored 12 on 5-for-15 shooting Monday. The Sun remain without Bria Hartley (knee) for the season.
Connecticut must protect the glass and the arc. They rank 11th in total rebounds at 35.4 and give up clean looks from deep. Atlanta attempts 28.4 threes per game, which stresses closeouts and weak-side help.
The Sun do have size on the boards with Angel Morrow’s 14 rebounds on Monday. But second-chance defense is a concern. Atlanta ranks third in offensive rebounds at 9.0 and pushes pace off misses.
Turnovers also swing games. The Sun force 14.9 turnovers per game but give some back with cold shooting spells. If the half-court sets stall, points in transition for Atlanta can pile up again.
Betting Prediction
Numbers point to Atlanta. The Dream are elite on the glass and in ball security. They shoot more threes and create extra shots through rebounding. Connecticut’s defense ranks near the bottom in field goal rate allowed and points allowed.
The series trend leans Atlanta as well. The Dream have won three of four this season and just beat the Sun by 25. The total trends favor the Under in this matchup (2-7-1 in the last 10). A methodical second half and late bench minutes can keep the score in check.
Projected Score: Atlanta 84, Connecticut 68. Atlanta covers -13.5. Total stays Under 158.5.
Pick: Atlanta -13.5
Secondary Lean: Under 158.5
Key Trends and Notes: ATL 27-15-1 ATS; CON 23-20 ATS. H2H last 10: 5-5 straight up, ATL 6-4 ATS, Under 2-7-1. This season’s results: ATL 79-55 (May 25), CON 84-76 (Jun 6), ATL 93-76 (Sep 1), ATL 87-62 (Sep 8). ATL ranks first in rebounds (36.7) and second in assists (21.3). CON allows 46.4% shooting and 85.9 points per game.
Injuries: Atlanta: none reported. Connecticut: Bria Hartley (knee) out for season.
Odds Snapshot: Spread ATL -13.5, Total 158.5, Moneyline ATL -1000 / CON +650.
Why it cashes: Atlanta’s edge is volume and spacing. More threes, fewer turnovers, and better rebounding equal more shots. Against a defense that has slipped late in games, that is enough to cover.
Pick: Atlanta -13.5
