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Week 8 NCAAF Iowa State at Oklahoma State Betting Preview

Defense, Rushing Set To Dominate Saturday's Tilt?

Oddsmakers are calling the NCAAF Iowa State at Oklahoma State betting matchup a close one, as it should be between two top 20 teams. The #18 Cyclones (3-1) aim for their first 4-0 conference start in program history, but have a tough visit to #6 Oklahoma State (3-0).

The Cowboys have had the last two weeks off after positive COVID tests at Baylor caused a couple postponements. There’s the ‘rusty or rested’ angle to consider when backing OSU by the -2.5 spread. Oklahoma State could also switch back to Spencer Sanders under center as the opening day QB has missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

Does Iowa State Have a Road Win in Them?

The Cyclones are coming off a bye last week as well, so NCAAF Iowa State at Oklahoma State betting should be a matchup of two fresh teams. Iowa State has bounced back nicely from a stunning 31-14 home loss to UL-Lafayette as -13.5 favorites, winning three straight games.

Iowa State’s offense doesn’t look great on paper ranking 41st in passing yards and 31st in rushing yards/game, but this team is talented on that side of the ball. ISU has put up 31+ in three straight games, with a 37-30 win over Oklahoma as +7.5 home underdogs mixed in there. QB Brock Purdy has a 148 or better rating in three straight games (4 TD, 0 INT over that span), and RB Breece Hall has 130+ rush yards the last three, with 7 TDs during that run.

The ISU defense buckled down last week in a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech as -10 point favorites. 7 of the Red Raiders’ points came on a 90-yard blocked field goal return and TTU had just 58 yards rushing and 212 yards through the air. ISU does have the 5th ranked defense in the Big 12 in yards/game, is 4th in the conference vs. the rush and 5th in points allowed / game.

New QB For OSU?

Mike Gundy is in an enviable spot on Saturday. The OSU coach has to choose between Spencer Sanders at QB, a preseason Heisman candidate returning from an ankle injury, or Shane Illingworth, who is 4th in the country in completion percentage (73.5%). Both players have split reps in practice, which actually puts more pressure on the Iowa State defensive game plan.

It will be interesting to see how having the last two weeks off alters Oklahoma State’s play. They have looked pretty dominant in starting 3-0, but two of those wins came against Tulsa (16-7) and Kansas (47-7) when OSU was more than a 3 TD favorite. A lot of rest and playing their first real competition of the season could be a recipe for disaster for the Cowboys.

Saturday proves an interesting test to see if the Oklahoma State defense is that good, or just a product of inferior opponents. OSU has held teams to 13 points or less in each of their wins, and ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in yards/game, 2nd in passing yards, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed.

NCAAF Iowa State at Oklahoma State Betting Free Pick

The -2.5 spread for Saturday afternoon’s meeting (3:30 PM ET, FOX) is tough because these teams have a tendency to play each other tight. If the line was a TD, taking the points would be the play because the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. OK State won this game 34-27 last season on the road as +11.5 underdogs.

The angle to approach is the total, which is low at 52 because OSU’s defense looks so good on paper. The Cowboys haven’t played anybody though. ISU will score on Saturday, and the Cyclones have also allowed 30+ points in 3 of their 4 games.
Iowa State 31 – Oklahoma State 38

Free Pick: Over 52

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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