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Thursday Night College Basketball Free Play

An Under the Radar Game Between Valparaiso and Indiana State

The 12/28 free college basketball pick is a low-key good one between Valparaiso and Indiana State. Oddsmakers have given the 9-4 Crusaders an advantage on the road at 5-7 Indiana State, making Valpo just a PK play. Is this truly a 50/50, coin-toss game or is there a side worth a confident play on Thursday night?

Why Is Valpo Drawing a Strong Play?

Usually in a college basketball PK game, you side with the home team for the reason of being on their own court alone. This line hasn’t budged even .5 of a point from its PK open which begs the question – do oddsmakers want you to bet on the home team as a trap? If so, bettors aren’t taking the bait with a whopping 73% liking Valpo, the 6th most popular bet of the night.

The Crusaders have a solid overall record on the season, but recently they’re just 1-4 over the last five. All five games have come on the road – where Valpo is tonight and where they’re just 2-4 on the season. Any hope that Valparaiso has in getting the win in the 12/28 free college basketball pick relies in their defense. The Crusaders rank 21st in opponents field goal percentage and 56th in points allowed.per game. Valpo has had a week off for the holidays, but Thursday night still marks their sixth straight road game.

Do The Sycamores Surge at Home?

12/28 free college basketball pick
Jordan Barnes has led a win over Indiana already this season. Let’s see how he winds down the year.

Indiana State is a solid 4-2 at home this season but has lost two in a row coming into the 12/28 free college basketball pick. The home court mist was dispelled in Indiana State’s last game as they fell 68-73 to Elon as -6 favorites. The Sycamores have had five days off for the holidays and do have the advantage of playing three of their last four at home.

Indiana State has the ability to get the home win, mostly behind leading scorer Jordan Barnes, who has had 22+ points in four of the last six games. The Sycamores are about average on defense, but they may look like world beaters in the 12/28 free college basketball pick against a Valparaiso offense that is struggling. The Crusaders have scored 60 or less in three of the last five games and their leading scorer Bakari Evelyn only averages 10.4 points per game.

12/28 Free College Basketball Pick – Betting

There’s a lot of public betting on a road team that is just 2-4 away from their home court this season. Indiana State is pulling in under 30% of the consensus wager at a PK play which is a good thing. The Sycamores have the better scorer in Jordan Barnes, and are good at home this season – or at least not as bad as Valparaiso is on the road.

Pick: Indiana State Sycamores PK

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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