The Red Sox and Yankees square off on Saturday night with the winner taking over sole possession of 1st place in the AL East. While that is sure to be a great game, arguably the best value of the night comes in a game between two teams that are a combined 36 games under .500. Oddsmakers have set Texas as just -120 favorites against the Chicago White Sox for the June 30th AL free pick. The Rangers have great potential as they’ve won 8 of their last 10, including an 11-3 series opening victory last night. Is this game the biggest marquee matchup of the night? Definitely not – but it could be the most profitable if played right.
What To Expect From the Chicago White Sox?
Chicago is just 28-53 on the season, 16.5 GB from Cleveland in the AL Central. That being said Ricky Renteria’s team hasn’t been playing absolutely horrible lately. The Sox took 2 of 4 vs. Oakland and 2 out of 3 against the Twins but it should be noted that both of those series were at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has just 12 road wins on the season but one bright spot is that their offense has been playing a bit better. The White Sox have scored 6+ runs in 5 of the last 7 and when they don’t score they at least give up a lot of runs as the ‘over’ has hit in 8 of 10 Sox games.
Carlos Rodon (1-2, 3.70 ERA) would love some run support from his offense as he makes just his 5th start of 2018 after returning from shoulder surgery. The June 30th AL free pick presents a huge bounce back game for the left hander as he pitched 8.0 IP last time out against Oakland – doing so on just 99 pitches however. Rodon has allowed 2ER or less in 3 of his 4 starts this year. The pitcher has also held Texas to a .234 career average against him, albeit in a small sample size of 47 AB. Even though the White Sox have lost 6 straight Rodon road starts, there is some value on Chicago at +110 tonight.
Texas Looks to Continue Their Hot Hitting
Despite an underwhelming 37-46 record on the year that has them in last in the AL West, the Rangers actually boast a top 12 scoring offense on the season. That successful hitting has continued lately as Texas has scored 7+ runs in four of the last seven games. That includes an 11-3 pounding of Chicago last night in which the Rangers scored 7 runs in the 2nd inning alone. Texas belted out 5 HR last night led by Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara both hitting their 15th of the season. Rougned Odor has 2HR this week and could have a big night in the June 30th AL free pick as he’s 4 for 8 lifetime against Rodon.
Saturday night presents a huge opportunity for Texas starter Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.72) as a win would be the 245th of his career – tying with Dennis Martinez for the most in MLB history by a player from Latin America. It’s been an up-and-down past 7 starts for Colon as he has 3 games in which he allowed 6+ ER over that span. Colon gave up 4HR to the Yankees on May 21st and gave up 3 in one game to the Dodgers on June 10th. The veteran allowed 3ER or less in the other 4 starts however so it’s hard to know what to expect Saturday night. The Rangers are 1-5 in Colon’s last 6 starts on 5 days of rest and 0-5 in Colon’s last 5 following a quality start his last time out which does not bode well for Texas tonight.
June 30th AL Free Pick Betting
One trend going the Rangers way is that they are 5-1 in their last 6 home games. That being said Chicago should be able to put up some runs against Colon even though they’ve only faced him just a combined 12 times. Oddsmakers have set the O/U at 10 tonight as temps are expected to approach 100 degrees even though there is a strong wind coming in from RF. The biggest question facing tonight then is if the Rangers can get to Rodon? After a high scoring game last night, expect the Texas offense to cool a bit in the heat tonight.
Free Pick: Chicago White Sox +110