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Saturday July 13th MLB Betting Free Pick: Twins at Indians

Indians Turn to Bauer to Try and Close Gap in the Central

The July 13th MLB betting free pick seems to be a solid pitching matchup on paper yet oddsmakers have set the total at a relatively high 9. Jake Odorizzi (10-4, 3.15) gets the nod for Minnesota hopefully recovered from a blister injury that cost him an appearance in the all-star game. Trevor Bauer (8-6, 3.61) goes for the Indians attempting to build on a 4-0 record with a 2.90 ERA over his last 6 starts. Cleveland is the home favorite in this one at -143 (MIN +127).

Twins Looked Strong in First Game Back

July 13th MLB betting free pick
Cruz and the Twins got a big road win to kick off the 2nd half of the season on Friday.

The series opened on Friday night with Minnesota using a 3-run 7th inning to capture the 5-3 victory. Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver both had home runs, giving the Twins a major league leading 168 long balls on the year – they had 166 all of 2018. Jorge Polanco (26 AB) and Max Kepler (34 AB) have both gone yard 3 times vs. Cleveland’s Bauer (Kepler all three in one game). More importantly the win pushed the Twins lead to 6.5 over Cleveland in the Central.

Odorizzi gets the nod for Minnesota in the July 13th MLB betting free pick and the Twins are 12-2 in his last 14 starts. That being said, the Twins have dropped 6 straight Odorizzi starts vs. Cleveland. The right-hander has also been battling a blister issue that has contributed to him allowing 4+ ER in 3 of the last 4 outings. Odorizzi will be activated from the 10-day IL for Saturday’s contest hoping to duplicate his 6.0 IP, 1H, 11K performance vs. Cleveland on March 30th.

Indians a Good Bet to Even Up the Series Saturday?

July 13th MLB betting free pick
If the Indians fall too far back from the Twins, Bauer could be a trade target.

Not only have the Indians beat the Twins 6 straight times when Odorizzi takes the mound, they have also gone 7-3 in Bauer’s last 10 starts vs. Minnesota. Cleveland has also won 6 straight Bauer starts as he’s gone 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA over that span. The Indians are 5-2 over their last 7 at home but managed just 6 hits and faced some bullpen issues in Friday night’s loss. The Indians were stifled by Odorizzi in their 2nd game of the season, and have hit just .237 against the Minnesota starter in 76 total AB. That being said, Cleveland has hit 6HR vs. Odorizzi over that span including 2 each from Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Did Cleveland just have a hangover on Friday from hosting the all-star festivities during the week? They are significant favorites in the July 13th MLB betting free pick (-143) but there’s also good value on Minnesota +127 in Saturday’s game. Cleveland is 25-19 at Progressive Field on the season, but interestingly Bauer’s ERA is 4.96 at home compared to 2.43 on the road. Bauer threw 8 IP vs. the Twins on June 6th, but also gave up 5ER powered by a 3HR game from Kepler.

Top Trends:

  • Twins are 14-2 last 16 Saturday games
  • Twins are 12-2 in Odorizzi’s last 14 starts
  • Indians are 6-1 last 7 overall
  • Indians are 6-0 in Bauer’s last 6 starts
  • Indians are 7-3 in Bauer’s last 10 vs. Twins
  • Twins are 0-6 in Odorizzi’s last 6 vs. Cleveland

July 13th MLB Betting Free Pick

Saturday night’s contest seems like it could end as a 2-1 pitcher’s duel or an 8-6 shootout. Both hurlers have the potential to be solid – but also lay some stinkers. Odorizzi has given up 16ER over his last 4 starts and Bauer has surrendered 5ER in 2 of his last 4. The teams used a combined 10 bullpen pitchers on Friday night and the bats should be even better Saturday in the 2nd game back from the ASG.

MLB Free Pick: Twins / Indians *Over* 9

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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